Global oil prices surged past $116 per barrel Monday morning as Iran accused the United States of massing forces for a full-scale invasion, triggering emergency fuel management measures in governments from Tokyo to Berlin.
Brent crude jumped 7.3% in early Asian trading to reach $116.40, while West Texas Intermediate climbed to $112.80, levels not seen since the immediate aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The spike reflects geopolitical fear rather than supply fundamentals, analysts said, as physical oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have not yet been disrupted despite threats from Tehran.
"This is panic buying driven by worst-case scenarios," said Amrita Singh, chief energy analyst at Goldman Sachs. "The market is pricing in the possibility of a complete shutdown of the Strait, which would remove 20 million barrels per day from global supply—roughly one-fifth of all oil consumption."
Iranian state media reported Monday that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei convened an emergency meeting of the Supreme National Security Council, citing intelligence assessments that US forces are positioning for ground operations. The Pentagon denied the accusation as "categorically false," though it acknowledged that two additional carrier strike groups are en route to the Persian Gulf.
To understand today's headlines, we must look at yesterday's decisions. The current price surge echoes the 1979-80 Iranian Revolution and the 2008 commodity supercycle, but with a critical difference: global oil markets are significantly less liquid today due to years of underinvestment in production capacity. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, depleted by releases in 2022-2023, sits at its lowest level in four decades, limiting 's ability to moderate prices through emergency releases.





