European security officials have accused Russia of using underground tunnels to smuggle migrants across the border into EU territory, describing it as part of a deliberate campaign of hybrid warfare designed to destabilize European nations and strain their asylum systems.
The accusations, reported by Yahoo News UK, come from intelligence sources in Finland and the Baltic states, where officials claim to have evidence of tunnel infrastructure facilitating migrant flows from Russia into EU territory. If confirmed, the tunnels would represent a permanent mechanism for hybrid attacks on European borders.
This follows a pattern I've documented from Moscow to Minsk: Russia weaponizing migration flows as geopolitical leverage. Belarus did this in 2021, bringing thousands of migrants to the Polish border as punishment for EU sanctions. Now evidence suggests more sophisticated infrastructure. If confirmed, these tunnels represent an escalation in Russia's hybrid warfare tactics.
The concept of using migration as a weapon is not new. Turkey has periodically threatened to "open the gates" and allow refugees to flood into Greece, leveraging Europe's migration anxieties for concessions. Belarus made good on similar threats in 2021, orchestrating flights from the Middle East to Minsk and busing migrants to EU borders.
But tunnels would represent a qualitative difference. Where previous operations relied on temporary arrangements—flights, buses, border guards turning a blind eye—fixed infrastructure suggests long-term planning and investment. Tunnels cannot be easily shut down through diplomatic pressure or border security measures, making them a durable tool for destabilization.
Finnish officials have reported a surge in asylum seekers crossing from Russia since the country joined NATO in 2023, with many arriving at remote border crossing points with little explanation of how they traveled through vast Russian territory. Finland closed several border crossings in response, accusing Moscow of orchestrating the flows in retaliation for NATO membership.
The Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—have reported similar patterns. All three have built fences along their Russian borders since 2022, citing security concerns related to the war in Ukraine and fears of hybrid attacks. But fences are less effective if migrants can bypass them through underground passages.
Russia has denied weaponizing migration, dismissing the accusations as European propaganda designed to justify increased military spending and border security measures. Moscow argues that European policies in the Middle East and Africa create refugee flows, and that Russia is merely a transit country, not an orchestrator.
But the pattern suggests otherwise. The 2021 Belarus operation was thoroughly documented, with evidence of Belarusian and Russian officials organizing flights, providing logistics, and directing migrants to specific border crossings. The operation only ended when EU pressure on airlines stopped flights to Minsk, demonstrating it was orchestrated rather than organic.
The strategic logic is clear. Migration provokes intense political debates in Europe, empowering far-right parties and straining EU unity. By increasing migrant flows, Russia exacerbates these tensions at relatively low cost. Unlike military operations that risk escalation, hybrid tactics operate in grey zones where attribution is difficult and responses are complicated by humanitarian and legal obligations.
European security officials face challenges in countering tunnel-based smuggling. Underground infrastructure is difficult to detect without specific intelligence, and even when located, cannot be easily dismantled if it crosses international borders. Border guards must patrol not just surface crossings but potentially underground routes as well.
The accusations also raise questions about where these tunnels are located and how they were constructed. Building tunnel infrastructure would require significant resources and time, suggesting planning that predates recent escalations. If tunnels exist, were they built specifically for migration, or are they repurposed infrastructure from earlier periods?
For now, European nations are responding by strengthening border security, sharing intelligence, and pressuring Moscow through diplomatic channels. But the fundamental challenge remains: how to defend against hybrid warfare tactics that exploit humanitarian values and legal obligations while operating below the threshold of conventional conflict.
