PepsiCo will slash prices on major chip brands by up to 15%, marking one of the clearest signals yet that consumer goods companies have lost the pricing power they enjoyed during the pandemic era.
The price cuts, affecting Lay's, Doritos, Cheetos, and Tostitos, roll out this week and represent a dramatic reversal for an industry that spent three years raising prices faster than ingredient costs justified. Rachel Ferdinando, CEO of PepsiCo Foods U.S., framed the move as customer-focused: "People shouldn't have to choose between great taste and staying within their budget."
The real story is simpler: consumers stopped buying.
The Numbers Don't Lie
PepsiCo's own data shows North American food volumes declined 1% despite overall revenue growth—evidence that price increases generated sales without moving product. Shoppers traded down to store brands or eliminated snack purchases entirely, a behavioral shift that persists even as headline inflation moderates.
CEO Ramon Laguarta acknowledged what the numbers made obvious: affordability barriers are preventing low- and middle-income consumers from buying brand-name products. That's corporate-speak for "we priced ourselves out of the market."
The price cuts also fulfill commitments to activist investor Elliott Investment Management, which pushed PepsiCo to address volume declines that preceded activist involvement. Last month the company pledged to rationalize its product portfolio—cutting the lineup by roughly 20%—while introducing premium offerings like protein-enhanced Doritos and Lay's varieties made with avocado or olive oil.
Industry-Wide Implications
PepsiCo's reversal matters because it signals a broader shift in consumer packaged goods. The industry enjoyed unprecedented pricing power from 2021 through 2024, using supply chain disruptions and inflation as cover to push through increases that exceeded cost pressures. Profit margins expanded even as companies claimed rising expenses.
But that era is ending. Consumers adapted by switching brands, reducing consumption, or waiting for promotions. Retailers expanded private-label offerings that undercut national brands by 30% or more. The result: volume losses that now threaten the revenue growth Wall Street demands.
Analysts are watching whether competitors follow PepsiCo's lead. Bentonville-based retailers report that shoppers remain price-sensitive despite wage gains and lower headline inflation. If PepsiCo's price cuts force rivals to match, the entire sector faces margin compression.
What Changed
The timing reveals the power shift. PepsiCo held firm on pricing through 2025 despite volume warnings. Only after activist pressure and continued volume declines did management reverse course. The market called their bluff.
For investors, the question is whether this represents market normalization or the beginning of a pricing war. CPG companies built business models around low-single-digit volume growth offset by mid-single-digit price increases. If pricing power evaporates, the math breaks.
PepsiCo's move suggests the answer is already clear. Companies that raised prices aggressively during inflation now face a reckoning. Consumers learned they could live without $6 bags of chips. Getting them back requires more than marketing—it requires acknowledging that pricing went too far.
