The Nobel Peace Prize nominee just told his attack dog to sit after breaking the entire global oil market. Three days ago, Donald Trump was bombing Iranian oil infrastructure "for fun," he said on NBC with a smile. Today, Reuters reports he told Israel to stop hitting Iranian energy assets because the crisis is "deepening."
So to recap American foreign policy this week: Bomb for fun. Markets crash. Tell Israel to stop. Take credit for de-escalation.
This is the man Pakistan's Prime Minister and Army Chief nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize. Not ironically. Not as a joke. With full sincerity, in writing, submitted formally while this man was on television discussing bombing runs like he was ordering from a menu.
Meanwhile, Pakistan is burning Rs23 billion every single week in emergency fuel subsidies.
Let that number breathe. Rs23 billion. Per week. That's Rs92 billion per month, nearly Rs1.1 trillion annually, flowing out of a country that just secured a precarious IMF bailout and is simultaneously fighting a war in Afghanistan.
The subsidies were meant to be temporary relief when global oil prices spiked past $100 per barrel. But with Brent crude now hitting $114 and climbing, Pakistan's government is trapped between removing subsidies—which would trigger riots and inflation that could topple the government—and bleeding foreign exchange reserves at an unsustainable rate.
Fatima Bibi, a schoolteacher in Lahore, queued for 90 minutes at a petrol station on Thursday morning. "The subsidy means petrol is ₨280 per liter instead of ₨340, so I'm grateful," she said. "But my salary hasn't increased in two years. My cooking gas cylinder costs have doubled. The electricity bill is impossible. How long can the government keep this up?"
Not long, according to economists. The IMF has already signaled it will demand subsidy reductions as a condition for the next tranche of Pakistan's $7 billion Extended Fund Facility. That means fuel prices will rise, probably sharply, probably soon.
