Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens tomorrow, the next two months will be "an ongoing, absolute disaster" for oil markets. That's not speculation—it's the forecast from Paul Sankey, president of Sankey Research and one of the most closely watched voices in energy analysis.
Speaking on Bloomberg TV Thursday, Sankey laid out why reopening the strait wouldn't solve the supply crisis that's already locked in. The problem isn't just the closure—it's the structural damage to supply chains that can't be quickly repaired.
Here's the timeline that matters: tankers carrying pre-conflict shipments from the Persian Gulf are only now reaching destinations after more than 40 days of strait closure. That creates an unavoidable lag. Even if shipping resumed immediately, inventories in major consuming nations are already critically depleted.
JPMorgan analysts identified the crunch point: commercial inventories in OECD nations will hit "operational minimums" between May 9-30, 2026. When that happens, price increases shift from linear to exponential. We're talking about the moment when markets don't just get expensive—they break.
The supply hole is staggering. Trafigura Group estimates that 1 billion barrels of supply have disappeared due to the conflict, potentially reaching 1.5 billion barrels if fighting continues. For context, global oil consumption runs about 100 million barrels per day. This represents 10-15 days of total world demand—simply gone.
Recovery won't be quick even after hostilities end. Sankey walked through the timeline: Persian Gulf ports need two months to fully reopen. Tanker crews require 2-3 weeks to resume transit operations. Production facilities need four months to reach 99% capacity. None of that is speculative—it's based on historical disruption recovery patterns.
The knock-on effects are already visible in specific markets. Australia faces jet fuel shortages. is running low on industrial solvents critical for semiconductor manufacturing. These aren't theoretical supply chain vulnerabilities—they're real constraints hitting real industries right now.
