If you were planning to lock in a mortgage rate this week, you just watched your window slam shut. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage jumped 13 basis points to 6.12% on Monday, reversing an entire week's worth of progress in a single day.

The culprit? Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, global markets panicked, and the 10-year Treasury yield shot back above 4%. Mortgage rates follow Treasuries like a shadow, and when geopolitical chaos sends investors scrambling for safety, rates move fast.

This is brutal timing for spring homebuyers. Last week, rates had dipped to 5.99%—the lowest level since early February—and suddenly it looked like the housing market might actually thaw after a brutal year of elevated rates. Then Monday happened, and that brief moment of optimism evaporated.

Here's the math that matters: on a $400,000 mortgage, the difference between 5.99% and 6.12% is about $30 per month, or $10,800 over the life of the loan. That's not pocket change, and it's a direct result of Iran deciding to threaten global oil supplies.

The bigger question is whether this spike is temporary or the start of something stickier. According to CNBC, mortgage industry analysts are split. Some think rates will settle back down once the initial geopolitical shock fades. Others warn that sustained oil price increases could reignite inflation fears, keeping rates elevated for months.

For what it's worth, I think the optimists are underestimating how sticky this could be. The Federal Reserve was just starting to hint at potential rate cuts later this year. Now? Forget it. If oil stays above $90 and inflation ticks back up, the Fed isn't cutting anything. And if the Fed doesn't cut, mortgage rates aren't coming down.

So what should prospective homebuyers actually do right now? Don't panic, but don't wait either. If you're pre-approved and actively house-hunting, this 13-basis-point spike isn't a reason to bail on your search. Rates have been in the 6% range for most of the past year—this is the new normal, not some catastrophic outlier.

But if you were on the fence, hoping rates would drop into the 5s before you pulled the trigger, you need to adjust your expectations. That ship may have sailed. The spring housing market is already underway, and inventory is still tight in most markets. Waiting for perfect conditions is how you end up renting for another year.

One silver lining: if you've got money sitting in a high-yield savings account, those 5% APYs aren't going anywhere. The Fed needs to keep rates elevated to fight inflation, which means savers are still getting paid. It's cold comfort if you're trying to buy a house, but at least your cash isn't rotting at 0.1% like it was three years ago.

Bottom line: this rate spike is real, it's frustrating, and it's a direct consequence of geopolitical chaos halfway around the world. But it's not the end of the housing market. Lock your rate if you find the right property, don't chase the perfect rate that may never come, and remember that you can always refinance later if rates drop. You can't refinance the house you didn't buy.