By March 2026, Tatoyan's polling stalled at 7.8 percent—well below the 10 percent target Russian operatives had set. The documents outlined a backup strategy: a Karapetyan-Tatoyan coalition that could form an anti-Pashinyan majority while avoiding associations with former President Robert Kocharyan, who remains deeply unpopular among many Armenians.

Parallel investigations by The Insider revealed that Karapetyan received unsecured loans from Gazprom in 2016 to acquire Villa Maria Irina on the French Riviera—a property reportedly used by Vladimir Putin's alleged partner Alina Kabaeva. The transfers exceeded ₽2.5 billion with "no expectation of repayment," according to banking records cited in the investigation.

The leaked documents provide a rare window into the mechanics of Russian influence operations in its former sphere of influence. Rather than the crude disinformation campaigns that characterize Russian meddling in Western elections, the Armenia operation involved sophisticated political consulting, candidate recruitment, and substantial financial backing.

Russia has responded to Armenia's westward drift with economic pressure. Moscow has suspended imports of Armenian alcoholic beverages, banned Jermuk mineral water, and threatened higher natural gas prices if Yerevan deepens EU ties or leaves the Eurasian Economic Union.

For Armenia, the revelations underscore the risks of breaking with Russia. The country remains economically dependent on remittances from the Armenian diaspora in Russia and relies on Russian gas imports. Moscow's willingness to deploy the full spectrum of influence operations—from political consulting to economic coercion—demonstrates the costs of pursuing an independent foreign policy in Russia's near abroad.

Whether Pashinyan survives politically remains uncertain. But the leaked documents make clear that Moscow has no intention of accepting an independent Armenia aligned with the West—and will continue working to install a more compliant government in Yerevan.