President Emmanuel Macron has long advocated for "European strategic autonomy," arguing that the continent cannot indefinitely rely on American security guarantees. While other European leaders have been more cautious, events of recent years have pushed opinion in Macron's direction.

Nuclear Deterrence Question

A related polling question found 58% support for European-scale nuclear deterrence, though this support varies significantly by political affiliation. Socialist Party sympathizers showed 84% backing, Renaissance supporters 76%, and La France Insoumise 75%. The National Rally, by contrast, registered only 45% support.

The lower enthusiasm from National Rally voters reflects that party's emphasis on French national sovereignty over shared European capabilities. For nationalist-conservative voters, ceding control of France's independent nuclear deterrent to a European framework represents an unacceptable loss of sovereignty.

The nuclear question is perhaps the most sensitive aspect of European defense integration. France's force de frappe represents the ultimate guarantee of national sovereignty—the ability to threaten unacceptable damage to any aggressor regardless of allies' positions. Extending that nuclear umbrella to other European states would require unprecedented political integration and trust.

Three Visions of European Security

The survey reveals French preferences regarding Europe's security architecture:

48% favor independent European defense separate from NATO, representing the largest bloc. This vision would maintain the alliance but develop European capabilities that could act without U.S. involvement when European and American interests diverge.

28% prefer renationalized defense responsibilities, with each country primarily responsible for its own security. This reflects persistent skepticism about supranational institutions and belief that national military forces remain more accountable and responsive than multinational structures.

24% want to maintain the Atlantic Alliance as-is, reflecting traditional Atlanticist views that European security depends fundamentally on U.S. involvement and that efforts to create parallel structures would weaken NATO rather than strengthen Europe.

The plurality support for independent European defense marks a significant shift from Cold War and post-Cold War consensus, when NATO and U.S. leadership were broadly accepted as necessary for European security.

The Context of Crisis

This polling occurs amid what many analysts describe as the most dangerous security environment Europe has faced since the Cold War. Russia's invasion of Ukraine shattered assumptions about European security, while instability in the Middle East and Africa creates migration pressures and terrorism risks.

Most significantly, Donald Trump's repeated questioning of NATO's value and suggestions that the U.S. might not defend allies who don't meet defense spending targets have created existential uncertainty about the transatlantic security guarantee. While Trump is not the first U.S. president to pressure European allies over defense spending, his rhetoric has been more explicitly conditional.

European defense spending has increased substantially since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with multiple countries now meeting or exceeding NATO's 2% of GDP target. However, higher spending on national militaries does not automatically translate to effective collective defense or the ability to conduct large-scale operations without U.S. support.

Practical Obstacles

Despite growing public support, creating a truly functional European army faces enormous practical and political obstacles. European nations maintain redundant military capabilities, incompatible equipment, and different strategic cultures. Poland focuses on territorial defense against Russia, France on power projection in Africa, and Germany historically on avoiding military commitments altogether.

Defense industries remain largely national, with countries protecting domestic manufacturers even when this creates inefficiencies. Efforts to create common European defense procurement have made limited progress, as countries prefer to support national champions and maintain sovereign production capabilities.

Perhaps most fundamentally, defense policy touches core questions of sovereignty and national survival. Governments have proven reluctant to cede control over decisions about when and where to employ military force, even to close allies. The requirement for unanimous decision-making in EU foreign and security policy means a single member state can block action.

The Franco-German Challenge

Traditionally, major European initiatives require Franco-German alignment. However, Berlin and Paris maintain different views on defense. Germany, deeply committed to NATO and the U.S. alliance, has been skeptical of initiatives that might be seen as undermining the transatlantic relationship. France, more willing to challenge Washington, has pushed for capabilities that reduce European dependence on American military assets.

Recent German policy shifts, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz's "Zeitenwende" (turning point) announcement of major defense investment following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, suggest Berlin may be reconsidering its approach. However, translating increased defense spending into support for integrated European military structures remains uncertain.

What This Means for NATO

The growing support for European defense autonomy doesn't necessarily mean NATO's demise. Most advocates of European military integration view it as complementary to the alliance—a "European pillar" that would make the alliance more balanced rather than replace it.

However, U.S. officials have historically viewed European defense initiatives with suspicion, concerned they would duplicate NATO structures, waste resources, and create decision-making complexity in crises. Whether Washington continues this position under Trump or future administrations—potentially welcoming greater European defense burden-sharing—will significantly influence how European integration progresses.

For now, the polling data suggests French citizens increasingly believe Europe must develop the capability to defend itself, even if the political and practical obstacles to achieving that goal remain formidable.