While Washington doubles down on tariffs and protectionist rhetoric, the rest of the world isn't waiting around. A new analysis from the Cato Institute reveals that global trade partners are actively building new frameworks that deliberately exclude the United States—a strategic shift that could cost American exporters billions in market access.
The data is stark: since 2021, over 70 new bilateral and regional trade agreements have been signed worldwide, and the US is party to exactly zero of them. Meanwhile, China, the European Union, and emerging economies from Southeast Asia to Latin America are lowering barriers, harmonizing standards, and creating preferential access arrangements that systematically disadvantage American firms.
"We're witnessing the most significant realignment of global trade architecture in 30 years," says Scott Lincicome, director of trade policy studies at Cato. "Every new agreement without US participation is another door closing for American businesses."
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which includes China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN nations, now covers nearly 30% of global GDP and offers members tariff advantages that US exporters simply cannot match. American agricultural producers are getting squeezed out of Asian markets as Australian and New Zealand competitors enjoy preferential access.
The cost is quantifiable. The US Chamber of Commerce estimates that American exporters have lost approximately $130 billion in market opportunities since withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2017. That figure grows every quarter as new agreements take effect.
