Taiwan's demographic crisis has accelerated beyond government projections, with the total fertility rate plummeting to 0.695 in 2025—down sharply from 0.885 the previous year—marking one of the steepest annual declines in the island's modern history.
The fertility figure, reported by Taiwan News, represents the number of children the average woman is expected to have during her lifetime. Taiwan's rate now stands as the lowest in the world, falling well below even South Korea's historic low of 0.72 and Japan's 1.26.
Marriages dropped to just over 104,000 last year—a historic low—while births totaled approximately 107,000, a stark contrast to the more than 400,000 annual births recorded during the 1970s and 1980s when Taiwan's economy was booming and family formation remained robust.
Population Projections Accelerate Downward
The implications extend far beyond demographics into national security and economic sustainability. Taiwan's population, previously forecast to decline to roughly 14.37 million by 2070, is now expected to fall below 12 million by around 2065—approximately five years earlier than earlier projections suggested.
The island has already entered what demographers term a "super-aged" phase, with one-fifth of its 23.5 million residents now aged 65 or older. This ratio will only worsen as the birth deficit compounds year after year.
For Taiwan's critical semiconductor industry—which produces more than 90% of the world's most advanced chips—workforce implications loom large. The proportion of workers aged 45 to 64 is projected to exceed 60% by 2070, while younger workers entering employment may fall approximately 20% short of earlier workforce estimates.
Delayed Family Formation Deepens Crisis
Taiwanese residents are postponing major life milestones to unprecedented ages. Men now marry at an average age of 33.1 years, women at 31.1 years, with first-time mothers averaging 31.7 years—among the oldest globally.
Government officials attribute the continued weakness partly to declining marriage rates, noting that fewer partnerships will inevitably lead to fewer births in coming years. The economic pressures are structural: housing costs in Taipei rank among the world's least affordable relative to income, while workplace expectations—particularly in the tech sector—leave little time for family life.
The government expanded childbirth subsidies to NT$100,000 per child (approximately $3,125 USD) in recent years. However, officials privately acknowledge that financial incentives alone cannot reverse the trend, citing structural economic barriers to household formation as persistent obstacles.
National Security Implications
Watch what they do, not what they say. In East Asian diplomacy, the subtext is the text.
Beyond economics, Taiwan's demographic collapse raises questions about military readiness. The island maintains a conscription system for men, recently extended from four months to one year in response to tensions with China. A shrinking pool of military-age males—coupled with an aging society requiring more healthcare resources—creates strategic vulnerabilities that Beijing has noted in state media commentary.
Taiwan is not alone in facing a birth rate crisis—South Korea, Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong all struggle with similar challenges. But Taiwan's unique geopolitical position, combined with its outsized role in global semiconductor supply chains, means the island's demographic trajectory carries implications far beyond its shores.
The question facing policymakers in Taipei is no longer whether the population will decline, but how quickly—and whether the economy and society can adapt before the demographic deficit becomes irreversible.
