South Korea's conservative People Power Party has plunged to its lowest approval rating in five years, registering just 18 percent support with two months remaining before crucial local elections, according to polling data released this week.
The survey, conducted by Gallup Korea from March 31 to April 2 among 1,001 eligible voters nationwide, revealed a widening chasm between the ruling Democratic Party, which surged to 48 percent, and the beleaguered opposition. The 30-percentage-point gap represents the largest divide between the two major parties since September 2020, when the conservative party rebranded itself as the People Power Party.
"Since mid-August last year, the Democratic Party has hovered around 40 percent while the People Power Party remained in the low-to-mid 20 percent range, but over the past month the gap has steadily increased," Gallup stated in its analysis.
The collapse is particularly acute in Seoul, where the party recorded an all-time low of 13 percent—falling below the critical 15 percent threshold required under election law to receive full reimbursement of campaign costs. The 38-point gap with the Democratic Party in the capital far exceeds the national average, signaling potential catastrophe for conservative candidates in Korea's most populous and politically influential city.
Bae Hyun-jin, head of the Seoul party chapter, captured the crisis in a stark Facebook post: "Seoul 13%. Candidates aren't stepping forward because they're worried they won't even get election costs reimbursed." She revealed that the central party had sent an "SOS" to the Seoul chapter after struggling to find candidates for even one out of five district head positions in the capital.
The reimbursement threshold has created a vicious cycle for the party. Under South Korean election law, parties receiving 10-15 percent support qualify for half reimbursement of campaign expenses, while those below 10 percent receive nothing. With Seoul support at 13 percent and falling, potential candidates face the prospect of shouldering substantial campaign costs with little hope of victory—or even partial reimbursement.
Bae pointedly suggested that "the only way to get out of this situation seems to be replacing the 'face' of the People Power Party in elections," hinting at broader leadership concerns without directly calling for resignations.
Internal party tensions have intensified as lawmakers grapple with the timing and scope of the crisis. "More than the 18 percent national support figure, the bigger problem is that with only two months left before the local elections, we're stuck in a slump with no clear momentum for a rebound," a Seoul metropolitan area lawmaker told the Hankyoreh. "With so little time left, even if we raise questions about leadership responsibility, there's no realistic alternative, which is frustrating."
Some party members attribute the collapse to unresolved nomination conflicts that have paralyzed candidate selection in key districts. A lawmaker from the Yeongnam region—traditionally a conservative stronghold—suggested that "if the nomination infighting settles down, there could be an opportunity for a rebound," though such optimism appears increasingly detached from polling realities.
The June 3 local elections will select mayors, provincial governors, and district heads across South Korea, serving as a crucial midterm referendum on Lee Jae-myung's Democratic administration. Since Lee took office, the Democratic Party's approval has climbed to its highest level, while the conservative opposition has steadily hemorrhaged support.
The timing could scarcely be worse for Korean conservatism. The party faces not only electoral decimation but potential organizational collapse if it falls below reimbursement thresholds in multiple jurisdictions. The Seoul figures suggest this scenario is not merely theoretical but increasingly probable.
In Korea, as across dynamic Asian economies, cultural exports and technological leadership reshape global perceptions—even as security tensions persist. Yet the current political crisis demonstrates that domestic politics remains intensely consequential, with the conservative movement confronting an existential reckoning that could reshape the country's political landscape for years to come.
The People Power Party's 18 percent showing marks its lowest support since November 2020, when the then-opposition party struggled to gain traction amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The parallel is ominous: that period preceded significant conservative defeats in by-elections and a protracted period of Democratic dominance.
With candidate recruitment stalling, internal divisions intensifying, and no clear strategy for recovery evident, the party faces a stark choice: undertake dramatic leadership changes with less than 60 days remaining, or accept potentially catastrophic losses that could cripple the conservative movement's infrastructure and credibility for the next political cycle.
For now, party leaders appear frozen between these unappealing alternatives, hoping that "nomination infighting" will somehow resolve itself or that voters will spontaneously shift away from a Democratic Party that has consolidated its position as the dominant force in Korean politics. Neither scenario appears likely, leaving Korean conservatism in its most precarious position in half a decade.
