Software development job postings have climbed 15% since hitting a low point in May 2025, according to Federal Reserve economic data, directly contradicting two years of predictions that AI would devastate the profession.

The data, tracked through Indeed job postings and compiled by the St. Louis Federal Reserve, shows not just recovery but acceleration. The climb from January 2026 onward has been particularly sharp, suggesting something more interesting than a simple rebound from a temporary dip.

This matters because it challenges the narrative that's dominated tech discourse since ChatGPT launched. The story we've been told is straightforward: AI writes code now, so companies need fewer developers. Except that's not what's happening in the actual labor market.

Here's the more nuanced reality: AI tools like GitHub Copilot and Claude have absolutely changed how developers work. Code that used to take hours can now be scaffolded in minutes. But that efficiency gain didn't reduce demand for developers—it appears to have increased it.

Why? Because cheaper and faster code generation means more software gets built. Products that were too expensive to develop before are suddenly viable. Internal tools that would have languished on a backlog for years get shipped. The bottleneck wasn't "can we write the code"—it was "can we afford to build this."

AI removed that bottleneck. And someone still needs to architect systems, make technical decisions, review generated code, debug production issues at 3 AM, and understand what the business actually needs. That's all still developer work.

The Reddit discussion around this data is telling. Developers report being busier than two years ago, not less. The bar for hiring hasn't dropped—if anything, it's shifted toward people who can work effectively with AI tools. But the demand is clearly there.

This doesn't mean AI won't eventually change the profession dramatically. It probably will. But the idea that we're watching a job category collapse in real-time? The data doesn't support it. If anything, we're watching AI create more demand for the exact skillset it was supposed to replace.