Saudi Arabia announced it possesses $2.5 trillion in untapped mineral reserves, a staggering figure that represents the kingdom's latest attempt to diversify its economy beyond petroleum as part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's Vision 2030 initiative.
The announcement positions Saudi Arabia as a potentially major player in the global minerals market at a time when demand for metals critical to renewable energy technology, electric vehicles, and electronics manufacturing is surging. If the estimates prove accurate—and if the kingdom can successfully extract and market these resources—it could reshape global supply chains currently dominated by China, Australia, and Chile.
But the kingdom's track record on mega-announcements gives reason for skepticism. Vision 2030 has produced numerous ambitious projections that have yet to materialize at promised scales. The $500 billion NEOM megacity project, for instance, has been repeatedly scaled back from initial plans. The question isn't whether Saudi Arabia has mineral deposits—geological surveys confirm significant reserves—but whether it can build the extraction infrastructure, attract investment, and develop the expertise to compete in global markets.
In this region, today's headline is yesterday's history repeating.
The minerals sector presents different challenges than oil production, where Saudi Arabia developed institutional expertise over decades. Mining operations require significant water resources—particularly scarce in the Arabian Peninsula—sophisticated processing facilities, and environmental management systems. The kingdom will need to import technical knowledge while training a domestic workforce, a timeline measured in years if not decades.
Timing matters in commodity markets. As the global economy pivots toward renewable energy, demand for lithium, copper, cobalt, and rare earth elements is projected to surge over the next two decades. If Saudi Arabia can position itself as a reliable supplier, particularly to European and Asian markets seeking to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains, the economic potential is substantial.
The $2.5 trillion figure itself warrants scrutiny. Mineral reserve valuations depend on extraction costs, global commodity prices, and market accessibility—all variables that fluctuate significantly. What matters isn't the theoretical value of underground deposits but the economically recoverable reserves that can be profitably extracted and sold.
For Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, mineral development represents another pillar in the diversification strategy meant to prepare Saudi Arabia for a post-oil future. Whether this announcement becomes a transformative economic reality or another aspirational projection will depend on execution—something that has proven challenging for even the kingdom's most well-funded initiatives.
