Polish President Andrzej Duda has called for Poland to consider developing its own nuclear deterrent, marking the most explicit discussion of nuclear proliferation by a NATO member state in decades and raising profound questions about the future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Speaking at a defence conference in Warsaw on Friday, Duda said Poland should explore "all options" for guaranteeing its security, including the acquisition or development of nuclear weapons, given what he described as "unreliable American security commitments" under the Trump administration.
"We must consider whether Poland should seek its own nuclear deterrent capability," Duda told the audience of military officials and defence experts. "The world has changed. We cannot assume that extended deterrence will protect us forever." The remarks, reported by Notes from Poland, represent a dramatic escalation in Eastern European anxiety about Washington's commitment to Article 5 of the NATO treaty.
To understand today's headlines, we must look at yesterday's decisions. Poland has been one of America's most stalwart allies in Europe, hosting significant US military forces, purchasing billions of dollars in American weapons systems, and consistently meeting NATO's 2% GDP defence spending target. The fact that Warsaw is now publicly questioning the reliability of the US nuclear umbrella reflects a seismic shift in strategic thinking.
Poland is a signatory to the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which commits non-nuclear-weapon states to forego development of atomic arms in exchange for security assurances and access to civilian nuclear technology. Any Polish nuclear weapons program would require withdrawal from the treaty—a step that would likely trigger similar discussions in Germany, South Korea, Japan, and other US allies.
The statement follows similar remarks by German parliamentarians and defence officials who have begun openly discussing whether Germany should reconsider its non-nuclear status. Former German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius suggested in January that Berlin might need "autonomous nuclear capabilities" if American extended deterrence proved unreliable.
Arms control experts warned that a cascade of nuclear proliferation in Europe would fundamentally destabilize the international security order. "If Poland goes nuclear, you can be certain that Russia will cite it as justification for putting tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus and Kaliningrad," said Rose Gottemoeller, former US Under Secretary of State for Arms Control, in remarks to the Financial Times last month.
Polish government sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, emphasized that Duda's comments were intended to pressure Washington into providing stronger security guarantees rather than to announce an actual weapons program. However, the sources acknowledged that technical discussions about nuclear options had taken place within the Defence Ministry and that Poland possesses the industrial and scientific infrastructure required for such a program.
Poland operates nuclear research reactors and has announced plans to build its first civilian nuclear power plants with technology from France and the United States. The country's uranium enrichment capabilities and plutonium reprocessing technology remain limited, but could be developed within a decade given sufficient political will and resources.
The remarks were met with immediate pushback from NATO headquarters in Brussels. Secretary General Mark Rutte issued a statement reaffirming that "NATO's nuclear deterrent remains credible and effective" and urged allies to "avoid speculation that undermines alliance cohesion."
However, the statement notably did not address the specific concerns raised by Duda about American reliability under President Trump, who has repeatedly questioned whether the United States should defend allies who "don't pay their bills."
Russian officials seized on Duda's comments. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the remarks "deeply irresponsible" and warned that any Polish nuclear program would be met with "appropriate countermeasures." Russian state media has portrayed the discussion as evidence of "Nazi resurgence" in Poland—a characterization rejected by Western observers as propagandistic but nonetheless indicative of Moscow's likely response.
In Washington, the State Department said it was "aware" of Duda's comments but declined to elaborate. Congressional Democrats expressed concern. "We need to reassure our allies that America's word means something," said Senator Bob Menendez, ranking member on the Foreign Relations Committee.
The discussion of Polish nuclear weapons underscores a broader crisis in the post-Cold War security architecture. For seventy years, US extended deterrence—the promise that America's nuclear arsenal protects its allies—has been the cornerstone of non-proliferation efforts. If that guarantee is no longer seen as credible, the incentives for proliferation increase dramatically.
Poland's population of 38 million and its advanced industrial economy would make it a formidable nuclear power. Its geographic position between Germany and Russia would place any Polish nuclear weapons at the heart of Europe's most sensitive strategic zone.
Whether Duda's comments represent serious policy or strategic signaling remains unclear. What is certain is that the conversation itself—unthinkable five years ago—is now occurring in open forums among NATO's most committed members. That alone marks a watershed in European security.
