This represents a stress test for European democratic enforcement mechanisms—one the EU has thus far failed. Brussels has maintained Article 7 proceedings against Hungary since 2018, a process that could theoretically suspend the country's voting rights in EU institutions. But those proceedings require unanimity among member states, and Poland (until its 2023 government change) and now Slovakia have blocked advancement.

The EU has employed financial leverage more effectively, freezing approximately €22 billion in cohesion funds and recovery funding due to concerns about rule of law and corruption. Yet this approach faces limitations. Orbán has successfully portrayed EU funding restrictions as foreign interference, actually strengthening his nationalist political narrative. Opinion polling suggests many Hungarian voters view the EU sanctions as attacks on Hungarian sovereignty rather than legitimate enforcement of democratic standards.

The Poland Precedent

To understand today's situation, we must look at yesterday's decisions. Poland underwent a similar democratic backsliding from 2015-2023 under the Law and Justice party, with courts packed, media independence undermined, and civil society organizations pressured. The EU's response—legal proceedings and funding restrictions—proved insufficient to reverse the trend. What ultimately changed the situation was domestic politics: Polish voters elected a new government in 2023 that committed to reversing the democratic erosion.

But that outcome depended on elections remaining sufficiently free and fair for opposition victory to be possible. If Hungary crosses the threshold where electoral manipulation prevents genuine democratic competition, the EU has no clear mechanism for restoring democracy short of expulsion—a remedy so severe it has never been seriously contemplated.

Regional Implications

The Hungarian situation matters beyond Budapest. Orbán has cultivated relationships with like-minded leaders across Europe, particularly in the Balkans and among right-wing parties in Western European countries. Success in consolidating what he terms "illiberal democracy" provides a model for others seeking to maintain EU membership benefits while dismantling democratic constraints on executive power.

For the European project, built on the assumption that member states share fundamental democratic values, Hungary represents an existential challenge. Can the EU remain a union of democracies if it lacks effective tools to prevent democratic backsliding among its members? The April 6 elections, and the international response to credible allegations of electoral manipulation, will help answer that question.