Indian power plants cut generation by 8-12% in April, prioritizing domestic supply over exports. Nepal, which imports up to 450 MW during peak demand from the Indian grid, saw supplies drop sharply.

Now add climate change. Nepal generates 95% of its domestic power from hydroelectricity. But 2026 has brought severe drought linked to changing monsoon patterns. River flows are down 30-40% in major basins, reducing hydropower output.

"We're in the worst possible situation," explained Ram Prasad Dhital, former managing director of Nepal Electricity Authority. "Our own hydro production is down due to drought, and Indian imports we depend on are unreliable because of their gas supply crisis. We have no buffer."

The math is brutal. Nepal's installed hydropower capacity is about 2,000 MW, but current generation is only 1,200-1,300 MW due to low water levels. Peak demand reaches 1,800-2,000 MW. The gap must be filled by Indian imports - except those imports are no longer reliable.

Factory owners in Nepal's industrial zones face the immediate impact. Prakash Shrestha, who runs a garment factory in Kathmandu, told local media his production dropped 40% due to power cuts.

"We get 4-6 hours of load shedding daily," he said. "We installed diesel generators, but fuel costs are killing us. For every hour on generator, my production costs rise 30%. I'm losing contracts to Bangladesh and Vietnam because I can't guarantee delivery schedules."

A billion people aren't a statistic - they're a billion stories. For Sunita Tamang, a garment worker in Bhaktapur, the factory blackouts mean unpaid hours and uncertain income. She earns Rs. 18,000 monthly ($135) when working full-time. With production down, her March paycheck was Rs. 11,000.

"My children are in school, we pay rent, we need food," she explained. "When the factory can't operate, we don't get paid for those hours. How do I explain to my landlord that there's a war in Iran so I can't pay rent?"

The crisis exposes Nepal's energy vulnerability. The country has vast untapped hydropower potential - estimates suggest 42,000 MW of economically viable capacity. Yet development has been glacially slow due to financing challenges, environmental concerns, and political gridlock.

Meanwhile, Nepal became dependent on Indian electricity imports rather than building sufficient domestic capacity. The Nepal-India power trade agreement allows up to 1,000 MW of imports, but Nepal assumed Indian supply would be reliable. Climate change and geopolitical shocks have shattered that assumption.

"This is a wake-up call," said Prakash Jwala, energy analyst at Kathmandu University. "We cannot outsource our energy security to India. Not because India is unreliable as a partner, but because they face their own supply constraints driven by global factors."

The drought component is particularly concerning. Climate scientists warn that changing monsoon patterns could become the new normal. Nepal's glaciers are retreating, altering river flows. What was once a climate projection is now operational reality.

If hydropower generation remains constrained by drought and Indian imports stay unreliable due to LNG prices, Nepal faces months of blackouts. Winter demand - when heating needs rise and river flows drop further - could bring 8-10 hour daily outages.

The government has few options. Fast-tracking new hydropower projects takes years. Building thermal power plants requires fuel imports Nepal can't afford. Solar and wind could help but need massive investment and still face intermittency issues.

Short-term, Nepal is negotiating increased power imports from India, but Indian states face their own shortages. Long-term, the crisis may finally force serious investment in domestic generation capacity.

For Kathmandu's 3 million residents, the immediate concern is simpler: will the lights stay on? As winter approaches and the Iran situation remains unstable, that question has no reassuring answer.

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