Italy's population has stopped shrinking for the first time in more than a decade, as migration reversed a demographic decline that threatened the country's economic future and social fabric, Reuters reports.
According to data released by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), the country's population edged up by approximately 16,000 people in 2025, ending a 12-year streak of declining population. The reversal was driven entirely by net migration, as births continued to fall short of deaths by a significant margin.
The demographic turnaround marks a significant development for Italy, which has faced one of Europe's most severe aging crises. The country has the EU's second-oldest population after Japan, with a median age exceeding 47 years and one of the world's lowest birth rates at just 1.24 children per woman—well below the 2.1 replacement rate.
To understand today's headlines, we must look at yesterday's decisions. Italy's demographic challenges have been building for decades, driven by cultural shifts toward later marriage and childbearing, economic uncertainty that deters young couples from having children, and the emigration of working-age Italians seeking opportunities abroad.
The population decline, which began in 2014, had raised alarm bells among economists and policymakers who warned of an impending "demographic time bomb." A shrinking, aging population threatens economic growth, strains pension and healthcare systems, and creates labor shortages in key sectors.
Migration has now emerged as the primary factor preventing further population decline. ISTAT data shows that Italy recorded net migration of approximately 290,000 people in 2025, offsetting a natural population decline of 274,000 as deaths exceeded births. The majority of migrants came from North Africa, Eastern Europe, and South Asia.
The demographic shift has significant political implications for Italy, where immigration has been a contentious issue. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's right-wing government came to power partly on promises to reduce migration, yet faces the reality that the country's economic future may depend on continued immigration to offset an aging, shrinking native population.
"The data presents an inconvenient truth for those who promised to close the borders," said Professor Alessandro Rosina, a demographer at the Catholic University of Milan. "Without migration, Italy would face economic stagnation and fiscal collapse within a generation."
The government has attempted to thread the needle between its anti-immigration rhetoric and demographic reality by focusing on "selective" migration policies aimed at attracting workers in sectors facing labor shortages, such as agriculture, construction, and elderly care. However, critics argue this approach is insufficient to address the scale of the demographic challenge.
The birth rate continues to decline despite various pro-natalist policies introduced in recent years, including baby bonuses, tax breaks for families, and subsidized childcare. Economists attribute the continued low fertility to structural factors including precarious employment, high housing costs, and limited childcare infrastructure that make it difficult for young couples to have children.
The demographic stabilization, while welcome, remains fragile. Italy still faces a significant aging crisis, with the over-65 population expected to comprise 35 percent of the total by 2050. The dependency ratio—the number of retirees relative to working-age adults—is projected to reach unsustainable levels without continued migration or a dramatic increase in birth rates.
The Italian experience reflects broader challenges facing much of Southern Europe and East Asia, where low birth rates and aging populations threaten long-term economic and social stability. The resolution, or lack thereof, will shape Europe's demographic landscape for generations to come.
