A senior Iranian military official warned Friday that renewed conflict with the United States is "likely" to restart after President Donald Trump rejected Tehran's latest diplomatic proposal, marking a dangerous turn in negotiations that had briefly offered hope of de-escalation.
The warning from Iran's military command comes as Trump acknowledged he is reviewing a new Iranian proposal but indicated dissatisfaction with its terms. "There is a possibility we could restart strikes on Iran," the president told reporters Friday, underscoring the fragility of the two-month-old conflict that has seen both sides exchange missile strikes and naval confrontations in the Strait of Hormuz.
The contradictory signals from both capitals reflect the diplomatic chess match now underway, with Beijing playing an increasingly visible role as intermediary. China, which remains Iran's largest oil customer despite US sanctions, has positioned itself as the primary channel for communication between Washington and Tehran, a role that gives it substantial leverage over both parties.
To understand today's headlines, we must look at yesterday's decisions. The current crisis traces its origins to the collapse of the 2015 nuclear agreement, which Trump withdrew from during his first term. Since then, Iranian uranium enrichment has advanced substantially, while US sanctions have tightened, creating a cycle of escalation that erupted into open conflict in March when American forces struck Iranian military facilities following attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf.
The Iranian proposal reportedly includes terms for a temporary ceasefire and the resumption of limited oil exports in exchange for a partial lifting of US sanctions. However, according to sources familiar with the negotiations, the proposal does not address Washington's core demand: verifiable constraints on Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missile development.
"Tehran is demanding sanctions relief as a precondition for negotiations, while Washington insists on concrete nuclear commitments before any relief is granted," explained a senior European diplomat who has been briefed on the talks. "That fundamental disconnect has not been bridged."
The warning from Iranian military officials that war is "likely" to resume represents the most explicit threat from Tehran since the current round of diplomacy began. It suggests that hardliners within Iran's military establishment, who have long opposed negotiations with Washington, are gaining influence as the talks stall.
Oil markets have reacted with relative calm to the renewed tensions, with Brent crude trading at approximately $110 per barrel, a level analysts attribute to market expectations that China and other major buyers will continue purchasing Iranian oil regardless of US sanctions or military actions. The so-called "Hormuz Paradox" describes the market's apparent indifference to geopolitical risk in the region.
The Trump administration has simultaneously pursued contradictory approaches, ordering $8.6 billion in emergency arms sales to Middle Eastern allies while exploring diplomatic off-ramps with Iran. That arms package, which bypassed normal congressional oversight, includes advanced missile defense systems for Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
European capitals, which have attempted to preserve some version of the nuclear agreement despite US withdrawal, are watching the renewed escalation with alarm. The prospect of sustained military conflict in the Persian Gulf threatens not only energy supplies but the broader regional order that has held since the end of the Iran-Iraq War.
