Seventy-two days into the world's most severe oil supply disruption in half a century, India finds itself dangerously exposed to a crisis it cannot control. The Strait of Hormuz—through which 85% of India's crude oil supply passes—has been effectively closed since March 4, 2026, when Iran imposed a shipping blockade following coordinated US-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
The numbers hitting Indian households are stark. Brent crude has surged to $104 per barrel, up nearly $20 since the war began. Every $10 rise in crude costs India approximately ₹1 lakh crore annually in additional import costs—expenses that flow directly into petrol prices, cooking gas cylinders, transport costs, and everything moved by truck, which is nearly everything in the Indian economy.
The immediate trigger was brutal and direct. On February 28, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran. Within hours, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps broadcast to every vessel in the area: "No ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz." Commercial traffic dropped over 90% overnight. Ships reversed course. Insurance companies pulled war risk coverage entirely. Iran wasn't bluffing—gunboats attacked tankers, drones hit vessels, and the IRGC claimed they destroyed 10 commercial ships in a single day.
Indian vessels were among the first caught in the crossfire. Iranian gunboats fired on a tanker with no radio warning. India's Foreign Secretary summoned the Iranian ambassador to Delhi and conveyed "deep concern" about the safety of Indian ships and sailors, according to reports. Ships bound for Indian ports—carrying crude oil and LNG—were stranded in the Persian Gulf, unable to move. Vessels like the Al Ghashamiya carrying LNG and the Sti Elysees carrying crude reversed course mid-journey rather than risk Iranian fire.
