The Green Party captured the Gorton and Denton parliamentary seat early Thursday, ending 93 years of Labour dominance in a Manchester-area constituency and delivering a stinging rebuke to Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government less than eight months into its term.
Green candidate Hannah Spencer secured 40.7 percent of the vote in results announced shortly after 2 a.m., defeating Labour's 25.4 percent in a constituency Labour has held since 1931. The 15.3 percentage point margin represents one of the most dramatic by-election defeats for a governing party in modern British political history.
To understand today's headlines, we must look at yesterday's decisions. Gorton and Denton—a working-class constituency in Greater Manchester—has anchored Labour's northern England base for nearly a century. The party's vote share never fell below 45 percent in general elections since World War II. Labour's candidate in July 2024 won with 56.8 percent. Nine months later, that support collapsed by more than half.
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Andrew Gwynne, who accepted an appointment to the House of Lords. The seat should have been a comfortable Labour hold. Instead, it became a referendum on Starmer's governance and exposed fractures in the progressive coalition that delivered Labour's landslide general election victory.
The numbers tell a story of voter realignment. Labour's vote share dropped 25.3 percentage points compared to the July general election. The Greens gained 27.5 points. Reform UK, the right-wing populist party led by Nigel Farage, captured 28.7 percent—finishing second and gaining 14.7 points. The Conservative Party collapsed to just 1.9 percent, losing its deposit after failing to reach the 5 percent threshold required to recover candidate expenses.
Green candidate Spencer, in her victory speech, focused almost entirely on economic issues: cost of living, NHS waiting times, and public service decline. She barely mentioned environmental policy—a deliberate pivot that reflects the Green Party's strategy to position itself as a broad progressive alternative to Labour rather than a single-issue movement. "This is about bread-and-butter issues," she told supporters. "People are struggling to make ends meet, and they're not seeing this government deliver."
The constituency's demographics help explain the result. Gorton and Denton's population is approximately 30 percent Muslim, and Gaza has emerged as a wedge issue fragmenting Labour's traditional base. Green campaigners distributed leaflets in Urdu urging voters to "punish Labour for Gaza" and warning that "Reform must be defeated to give Muslims a strong voice." The messaging—simultaneously progressive on foreign policy and communalist in targeting—proved effective in detaching Muslim voters from Labour.
Labour officials immediately raised concerns about electoral irregularities, citing reports of violations of ballot secrecy. Election observers documented instances where individuals appeared to photograph marked ballots—a serious offense under UK electoral law. Greater Manchester Police stated they received no formal complaints during voting but would investigate any evidence submitted subsequently. The Green Party denied any involvement in wrongdoing and accused Labour of making excuses for its defeat.
Prime Minister Starmer sent a letter to Labour MPs acknowledging the result was "deeply disappointing" but arguing that mid-term by-elections typically punish governing parties. He characterized the Greens as embracing "divisive, sectarian politics" and noted the party welcomed an endorsement from George Galloway—the hard-left former MP known for inflammatory rhetoric. Starmer argued the Green coalition of progressive voters and Muslim constituents focused on Gaza is "unstable" and "cannot survive a general election campaign."
The historical context is important. By-elections often produce anomalous results that do not predict general election outcomes. The Liberal Democrats won dramatic by-election victories throughout the 1990s and 2000s that never translated to general election success. Galloway himself won two by-elections—Bradford West in 2012 and Rochdale in 2024—only to lose both seats in subsequent general elections. Starmer is betting Gorton and Denton follows this pattern.
However, the result exposes genuine vulnerabilities. Labour's progressive coalition—assembled to defeat the Conservatives—is fracturing under the pressures of governance. Left-wing voters frustrated by cautious economic policy defect to the Greens. Working-class voters alienated by immigration and cultural issues shift to Reform UK. Labour's core vote shrinks from both directions simultaneously.
The Gaza factor particularly concerns Labour strategists. An estimated 10-13 UK constituencies have Muslim populations exceeding 30 percent. If the Gorton and Denton pattern replicates in these seats during the next general election, Labour could lose a dozen MPs—potentially including cabinet ministers in marginal seats. This creates incentives for Labour to adjust Middle East policy, though Starmer has resisted calls to break with Israel.
Reform UK's strong second-place finish also worries Labour. Farage's party captured 28.7 percent despite minimal campaigning and limited organization in the constituency. This suggests Reform's populist messaging resonates with working-class voters in Labour's traditional heartlands. If Reform consolidates support while Greens siphon progressive votes, Labour faces a pincer movement that could threaten its parliamentary majority.
Conservative collapse—finishing fifth with 1.9 percent—illustrates the party's ongoing crisis. The Tories governed Britain from 2010 to 2024 but have failed to rebuild since their July election catastrophe. Losing their deposit in a working-class northern constituency suggests the party's electoral base has shrunk to affluent southern England, leaving vast swathes of the country where Conservatives cannot compete.
For the Green Party, Gorton and Denton represents a breakthrough. The party now holds five parliamentary seats and has demonstrated capacity to win in urban, diverse constituencies beyond its traditional base in affluent liberal areas. Co-leader Carla Denyer hailed the result as proof that "progressive voters see Greens as a genuine alternative to Labour's timidity."
The campaign revealed tensions about identity politics and ballot secrecy that will likely fuel broader debates. Critics argue targeted appeals to ethnic or religious voting blocs undermine civic integration and create parallel political spheres. Defenders contend that engaging minority communities in their own languages and on issues they prioritize is democratic outreach, not sectarianism. The distinction matters for how British democracy evolves in an increasingly diverse society.
As I've covered British politics for years, Gorton and Denton feels like an inflection point—not because it predicts specific general election outcomes but because it exposes structural fragilities in Britain's party system. The old coalitions that structured politics for decades are dissolving. Labour can no longer count on automatic support from working-class or minority voters. Conservatives lack viable paths to national majority. New parties—Greens, Reform UK—exploit the openings created by major party decline.
Whether Starmer can reverse this trajectory before the next general election—likely in 2028 or 2029—depends partly on policy delivery. If economic conditions improve and public services stabilize, Labour may rebuild support. If not, Gorton and Denton could be the first of many seats lost to challengers on the left and right. For now, the result serves as a warning: governing parties in Britain's volatile political landscape cannot assume loyalty from traditional bases. Every vote must be earned, and discontent finds outlets through whatever party offers the most compelling alternative—even if that means electing a Green MP in a constituency that voted Labour for 93 years.
