Global equity funds are hemorrhaging capital at record rates, with investors pulling billions from US and Chinese markets in a coordinated retreat that signals deep unease about where stocks go from here.
According to data from fund tracking services, equity funds saw their largest weekly outflows on record, driven primarily by exits from US and Chinese equity markets. The simultaneous flight from the world's two largest economies isn't coincidental—it's a statement.
Investors are asking a question they haven't asked seriously in years: What if stocks go down?
US equity funds, which absorbed trillions during the pandemic bull run, saw massive redemptions as investors soured on valuations that assume perpetual growth. The S&P 500 trades at roughly 21x forward earnings, above its 20-year average, while profit growth forecasts keep getting revised downward. That's a bad combination.
Chinese equity funds, meanwhile, are dealing with an entirely different crisis: Nobody believes the economic data coming out of Beijing. Official GDP growth figures say 5%. Independent analysts say closer to 2%. Property markets are collapsing. Youth unemployment is catastrophic. Foreign investment is fleeing. And the government's response has been more censorship and less transparency.
So where's the money going? That's the trillion-dollar question.
Some is flowing into bonds, where yields finally look attractive after years in the wilderness. Ten-year Treasuries yield over 4.5%—not spectacular, but better than gambling on overvalued tech stocks. European bonds are also seeing inflows as investors bet on ECB rate cuts.
Some is going into gold, which has surged to new highs as investors seek safety. The classic crisis trade: When you don't trust governments, stocks, or currencies, you buy the shiny metal that's been money for 5,000 years.
But a lot of it is simply going to cash. Money market funds have seen record inflows, with investors content to earn 5% risk-free rather than chase returns in volatile markets. When cash yields 5%, you need a compelling reason to take equity risk. Right now, compelling reasons are scarce.
The outflows reflect a broader shift in investor psychology. For years, the mantra was "buy the dip"—every market pullback was a buying opportunity because central banks would rescue asset prices. That playbook worked from 2009 to 2021.
It stopped working in 2022 when inflation forced central banks to tighten. Now, with inflation still above target and economic growth questionable, the cavalry isn't coming. Investors are on their own.
The timing is notable. These outflows are happening before a recession, not during one. Historically, investors exit after markets fall, not before. This time, they're being proactive—either savvy or panicked, depending on your perspective.
For market bulls, this is contrarian bullish. When everyone's bearish, that's when you should be buying. Maximum pessimism equals maximum opportunity.
For market bears, this is validation. Investors are finally waking up to valuations, fundamentals, and geopolitical risks that have been obvious for months. The exodus has just begun.
Who's right? The numbers will tell us eventually. But right now, the numbers are saying: Get out.
Global equity funds are supposed to be the smart money—institutional investors with research teams and risk models. When they run for the exits simultaneously, retail investors should pay attention.
The outflows could reverse tomorrow if economic data improves or central banks pivot. But for now, the message from the world's largest investors is clear: We're not getting paid enough to take this risk.
In markets, that's usually how tops form. Not with panic selling, but with quiet, steady redemptions by people who've done the math and don't like the answer.
