Tigray Defense Forces have withdrawn from Tselemti, a contested town in northern Ethiopia, and announced readiness to resume dialogue under the Pretoria Agreement, according to statements from both the Tigray interim administration and Ethiopia's federal government.
The withdrawal, confirmed by multiple sources including Addis Standard, ends days of military confrontation that threatened to unravel the fragile peace established in November 2022. Yet both sides remain far apart on the core issues that sparked the latest clash, raising questions about whether this marks a genuine de-escalation or merely a tactical pause.
"We welcome the decision to pull back from Tselemti and return to dialogue," says Dr. Alemayehu Weldemariam, a political analyst at Addis Ababa University. "But let's be clear—the TDF withdrew because the military calculus didn't favor them, not because their demands changed. This is repositioning, not resolution."
The Pretoria Agreement's Unfinished Business
The Pretoria Agreement, brokered by the African Union in November 2022, ended two years of devastating civil war that killed hundreds of thousands and displaced millions. It called for disarmament of Tigray forces, restoration of federal authority, resumption of services, and eventually, political dialogue on contentious governance issues.
Nearly two-and-a-half years later, implementation remains stalled. Federal forces have not fully withdrawn from Tigray, displaced populations have not returned home, and Western Tigray—territory seized during the war—remains under Amhara control despite TDF demands for its return.
The recent clash in Tselemti erupted after TDF forces moved into the area, claiming they were protecting Tigrayan civilians and asserting historical claims to the territory. Federal forces, supported by Eritrean troops according to some reports, pushed back. After several days of fighting, the TDF withdrew, stating they were committed to dialogue but that their "core demands remain unchanged."
Getachew Reda, president of the Tigray interim administration, called the resumption of talks "possible" but essential. What he did not say is what concessions, if any, the TDF is willing to make.
Defeat, Pragmatism, or Strategy?
Analysts are divided on what the withdrawal signifies. Some suggest the TDF suffered significant losses, particularly if Ethiopia's military deployed drones—a tactic that proved devastating during the earlier war. Others believe the TDF achieved its objective of demonstrating it remains a capable force, then withdrew before casualties mounted.
A third interpretation is more cynical: the clash was a deliberate attempt to gain leverage ahead of negotiations, a show of force designed to remind Addis Ababa that peace in Tigray is conditional, not guaranteed.
"This was never about holding Tselemti permanently," says Dr. Yohannes Gebre, a conflict resolution specialist based in Nairobi. "It was about demonstrating capacity and resolve. The TDF wants a seat at the political table, not just as a defeated insurgency, but as a legitimate regional force. They're using military presence to secure political space."
The Bigger Picture: Ethiopia's Fragile Federalism
The Tselemti crisis reflects deeper fractures in Ethiopia's federal system. The ruling Prosperity Party, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, has sought to centralize power, clashing with regional forces in Tigray, Oromia, and Amhara who resist what they see as authoritarian overreach.
In Amhara, the Fano militia—once allied with federal forces against Tigray—now wages its own insurgency against Addis Ababa. In Oromia, the Oromo Liberation Army continues low-level conflict. Ethiopia is not experiencing one civil war, but several overlapping insurgencies, each rooted in disputes over land, identity, and the balance of power between regions and the center.
The Pretoria Agreement was supposed to resolve the Tigray conflict. Instead, it paused it. The underlying issues—territorial disputes, governance structures, accountability for war crimes, and the role of regional forces—remain unaddressed.
What Happens Next?
Dialogue will resume, according to both sides. But dialogue without compromise is theater. The TDF wants federal forces out of Tigray, the return of Western Tigray, and political guarantees for Tigrayan representation in national governance. The federal government wants complete disarmament of the TDF and uncontested authority over all disputed territories.
Neither side is offering concessions. And both have demonstrated a willingness to return to violence when dialogue stalls.
"The withdrawal from Tselemti buys time," says Dr. Weldemariam. "It does not buy peace. For that, you need political will, trust, and accountability. Right now, Ethiopia has none of those."
54 countries, 2,000 languages, 1.4 billion people. In Ethiopia, the question is whether dialogue can succeed where war only paused.
