Commander of Estonian Defence Forces General Martin Herem has warned that Russia will not require significant time to recover militarily following the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, emphasizing the urgent need for NATO's eastern flank to maintain high levels of readiness.
The assessment, delivered by one of the Baltic region's most experienced military commanders, reflects the acute strategic awareness that defines Baltic defense thinking. Herem's warning carries particular weight given Estonia's position as a frontline NATO member sharing a direct border with Russia.
"Venemaal ei ole vaja Ukraina sõjast taastumiseks pikalt aega," Herem stated, meaning Russia doesn't need long to recover from the Ukraine war. His analysis challenges assumptions in some Western capitals that Moscow's military degradation in Ukraine will provide a prolonged window of reduced threat to NATO's eastern territories.
In the Baltics, as on NATO's eastern flank, geography and history create an acute awareness of security realities. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have consistently exceeded NATO's 2% defense spending target, with Estonia committing over 3% of GDP to defense—among the highest rates in the alliance.
The Estonian assessment reflects direct operational intelligence and historical experience of Russian military doctrine. All three Baltic states lived under Soviet occupation for five decades, providing their defense establishments with institutional understanding of Moscow's strategic thinking that many Western allies lack.
Estonia has transformed itself into one of NATO's most capable eastern members since joining the alliance in 2004. The country maintains universal male conscription, has invested heavily in territorial defense capabilities, and pioneered cyber defense doctrine following the 2007 Russian cyberattacks on Estonian infrastructure.
Herem's warning comes as Baltic defense ministers have called for strengthened NATO presence in the region, including permanent brigade-level forces and enhanced air defense systems. The three nations argue their frontline position requires continuous deterrence rather than reinforcement-based strategies that assume warning time before potential aggression.
The statement underscores the divergence between Baltic threat perceptions and those in some Western European capitals. While nations further from Russia's borders debate long-term strategic postures, Baltic defense planners operate with the assumption that military readiness must be maintained continuously.
