Russian oil exports through Baltic Sea terminals plummeted by 1.75 million barrels per day following sustained Ukrainian drone strikes on the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, marking the lowest export levels since Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Weekly shipments fell to 2.32 million barrels per day in the week ending March 29, down from 4.07 million bpd the previous week—a 43 percent decline that cost the Kremlin approximately $1 billion in weekly export earnings, according to Bloomberg data cited by The Moscow Times.
The dramatic drop reflects Ukraine's expanding drone strike capabilities reaching deep into Russian territory, targeting critical energy infrastructure that funds Moscow's war effort. Only 22 tankers loaded 16.23 million barrels during the disrupted week, compared to 37 ships carrying 28.5 million barrels the week before.
In the Baltics, as on NATO's eastern flank, geography and history create an acute awareness of security realities. The strikes on Primorsk and Ust-Luga—Russia's primary Baltic export terminals—demonstrate how the conflict directly affects regional waterways that Baltic states monitor closely as NATO members.
Russian oil companies have warned of potential force majeure declarations on Baltic supplies, though shipments continued by drawing from seaborne reserves. Stored crude aboard tankers declined 13 million barrels to 118 million barrels as companies tapped floating inventory to maintain some export flow.
The export collapse occurred even as Urals crude prices surged $11.30 to $73.24 per barrel, reflecting the global energy crisis sparked by the Iran war. Russian weekly export earnings still dropped from $2.45 billion to $1.44 billion despite the higher prices.
Baltic state officials have long advocated for stronger economic pressure on Russia, including energy sanctions. The drone strikes achieve through military means what diplomatic efforts struggled to accomplish—a significant reduction in oil revenues funding the Kremlin's war machine.
