Defense stocks jumped hard on Monday as the Middle East heated up over the weekend. Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and the usual suspects all saw double-digit pops. Over on r/wallstreetbets, people are posting screenshots of AVAV and KTOS calls that doubled their portfolios.

So the question everyone's asking: should you jump in?

Short answer: probably not.

Here's why. CNBC reports that global defense stocks jumped as investors reacted to military escalation in the Middle East. The sector was "a rare bright spot" while the broader market sold off on fear.

That's exactly the problem. When something is the only thing going up in a down market, you're not getting in early—you're buying at peak fear pricing.

Let's talk about the winners and losers. On Reddit, one trader posted a $160k "war cocktail" of oil calls and defense plays. Another guy doubled his account on AVAV and KTOS calls bought Friday. Good for them—they timed it perfectly.

But for every winner posting gain porn, there are dozens who bought Monday morning at the top and watched their positions bleed by close. Check the comments on those threads. Plenty of people asking "why did AVAV tank today?" after it popped at open and immediately reversed.

Here's what Wall Street won't tell you: Geopolitical trades are a professional's game. The big money got positioned before the weekend. By the time you read about defense stocks "soaring" on Monday morning, the easy money is gone.

Defense stocks will likely stay elevated as long as tensions remain high. But they're also incredibly volatile and sensitive to news cycles. One peace talk headline and you're down 10% in a day.