Senior White House officials believe the political optics favor Israel launching the first strike against Iran ahead of critical nuclear negotiations set to begin in Geneva, according to a report by Politico.
The assessment, shared by multiple officials involved in Middle East policy, reflects a calculated political strategy as the Trump administration prepares for what many view as a make-or-break diplomatic engagement with Tehran.
"The politics are a lot better if they go first," one senior administration official told reporters, referring to potential Israeli military action against Iranian nuclear facilities. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, emphasized that such a scenario would complicate Iran's negotiating position while providing Washington with political cover for its Middle East strategy.
The revelation comes as tensions between Washington, Tehran, and Jerusalem reach a critical juncture. The Geneva talks, scheduled for early March, represent the first substantial diplomatic effort to address Iran's nuclear program since the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2021.
To understand today's headlines, we must look at yesterday's decisions. The current crisis has its roots in decades of mistrust. Iran has consistently maintained its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, while Israel and the United States have expressed alarm over uranium enrichment levels that experts say bring Tehran close to weapons-grade material.
Iran has accused the United States of spreading "big lies" about its nuclear ambitions, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi calling American claims "inflammatory propaganda designed to sabotage diplomacy."
The Trump administration has deployed significant military assets to the region in recent weeks, including carrier strike groups and advanced fighter squadrons. Defense analysts suggest this positioning serves dual purposes: deterring Iranian aggression and supporting potential Israeli operations.
European allies have expressed concern about the escalatory nature of the White House's apparent calculus. Josep Borrell, the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs, warned that "any military action before negotiations would be catastrophic for regional stability."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly stated that Israel reserves the right to act independently to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Israeli defense officials have declined to comment on operational planning, though military readiness levels remain elevated.
The political considerations extend beyond military strategy. With domestic pressures mounting and midterm elections on the horizon, the administration appears to be weighing how different scenarios would play with American voters and international partners.
Arms control experts warn that the window for diplomacy is rapidly closing. "If strikes occur before talks, we're looking at years of escalation rather than months of negotiation," said Dr. Melissa Clarke, director of the Middle East Security Program at the Washington-based Institute for Strategic Studies.
As the world watches, the stakes could hardly be higher. The next few weeks will determine whether decades of nuclear diplomacy can succeed or whether the region slides toward a conflict that could reshape the Middle East for generations.
