An internal Vietnamese military document obtained by Associated Press reveals planning for a possible war with the United States, marking a dramatic shift in Southeast Asian geopolitical calculations and reflecting growing regional anxieties about American unpredictability.
The document, which originated within Vietnam's military establishment, outlines contingency preparations for armed conflict with Washington. The revelation comes at a moment when traditional security alignments across Asia are undergoing fundamental reassessment.
To understand today's headlines, we must look at yesterday's decisions. Vietnam's relationship with both Washington and Beijing has been carefully calibrated since normalization of relations in 1995. Hanoi has pursued what analysts call a "bamboo diplomacy" strategy, bending with prevailing winds while maintaining independence from both powers.
For three decades, Vietnam gradually deepened ties with the United States, driven by shared concerns about Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea. The two former adversaries upgraded relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2023, a designation Hanoi reserves for its most important relationships.
This planning document suggests that calculus is fundamentally changing. Vietnamese officials have grown increasingly concerned about American reliability as a strategic partner, particularly following recent US policy pronouncements that have rattled traditional allies across Asia and Europe.
The document's existence does not necessarily indicate Vietnam expects war with the United States. Military establishments routinely develop contingency plans for scenarios ranging from probable to highly unlikely. However, the fact that such planning is occurring, and that it has leaked to international media, reveals the depth of strategic uncertainty in Southeast Asia.
Vietnam finds itself in an increasingly difficult position. Chinese military and economic pressure continues to grow, particularly regarding disputed territorial claims. Yet Hanoi appears to be hedging against the possibility that Washington may prove an unreliable counterweight to Beijing's influence.
The revelation will likely complicate efforts to strengthen the US-Vietnam relationship. It may also influence other Southeast Asian nations as they navigate between American and Chinese power.
Neither Vietnamese nor American officials have publicly commented on the document. The Pentagon typically declines to discuss intelligence matters or foreign military planning documents.
