United States intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran's theocratic regime is consolidating power rather than fracturing under military pressure, a counterintuitive finding that complicates Washington's strategy as airstrikes intensify across Iranian territory and the Strait of Hormuz.
The assessment, circulated among senior policymakers and first reported by The Washington Post, suggests that rather than weakening the Tehran government, the current military campaign may be strengthening hardline factions within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and marginalizing more moderate voices within Iran's political establishment.
Analysts point to several mechanisms driving this consolidation. External military pressure tends to trigger what intelligence professionals call "rally-around-the-flag" effects, enabling authoritarian governments to frame domestic opposition as treasonous during times of national crisis. The current conflict has provided Tehran's security apparatus with justification for intensified internal crackdown measures that might otherwise provoke backlash.
The IRGC, which controls significant portions of Iran's economy in addition to its military and intelligence functions, has used the war footing to expand its influence across governmental institutions. Sources familiar with the intelligence suggest that hardliners have sidelined officials who previously advocated for diplomatic engagement with the West, arguing that recent events have vindicated their long-standing position that accommodation with Washington is impossible.
To understand today's headlines, we must look at yesterday's decisions. The assessment echoes historical patterns seen in other prolonged conflicts. Iraq under Saddam Hussein demonstrated similar regime consolidation under external pressure during the 1990s sanctions regime. 's Kim dynasty has used external threats to justify internal repression for decades. The mechanisms are well-documented: external enemies provide convenient scapegoats for economic hardship, justification for security state expansion, and cover for elimination of political rivals.

