Washington is calling in favors, and Wellington is listening. The Trump administration has put New Zealand on notice: it wants access to the country's critical minerals as part of a broader strategy to break China's stranglehold on global supply chains.
At a summit in Washington this month, 27 nations gathered to hear Doug Burgum, Trump's Secretary of the Interior, lay out the new doctrine. Forget "drill, baby, drill" - it's now "mine, baby, mine." The goal? Compress 40 years of mineral development into two years, backed by guaranteed minimum prices and American capital.
China has dominated critical minerals processing for four decades. Beijing subsidized its way to near-monopoly status on tungsten, antimony, vanadium, rare earths - the elements that make modern technology and military hardware possible. Now Washington wants allies to build alternative supply chains, and New Zealand has what they need.
According to mining expert Duncan Hardie, who represented the country at the summit, New Zealand could supply tungsten, antimony, vanadium, manganese, and rare earth elements. Josie Vidal, chief executive of the New Zealand Minerals Council, noted titanium, vanadium, zirconium, and aluminum are already being mined domestically.
Mate, there's a whole continent and a thousand islands down here that matter. And right now, great powers are fighting over them.
The catch? Washington wants projects that are operational or "shovel-ready" - meaning New Zealand's notoriously lengthy consent processes could become a diplomatic liability. The Americans aren't asking politely; they're offering guaranteed prices and capital in exchange for reliable supply.
Back home, the politics are predictably messy. Green Party co-leader Chloë Swarbrick isn't buying the climate-friendly pitch: "They're going to be funnelling those resources into Donald Trump's militaristic expansion," she told RNZ.
Professor Jane Kelsey raised concerns about the "secret" nature of negotiations and whether they're compatible with New Zealand's obligations under Te Tiriti o Waitangi. Resources Minister Shane Jones dismissed secrecy allegations, pointing to international coverage of the summit.
This isn't just about mining. It's about New Zealand's position in a fragmenting world order. Wellington has spent decades trying to maintain good relations with both Washington and Beijing - selling dairy to China while relying on American security guarantees. That balancing act is getting harder.
The Pacific dimension matters too. China has been signing security pacts across the islands, from Solomon Islands to Kiribati. Washington is pushing back, and mineral supply chains are part of the toolkit. If New Zealand wants American support for its Pacific influence, it may need to deliver on critical minerals.
Burgum's timeline - compressing 40 years into two - is ambitious to the point of fantasy. New Zealand's regulatory system doesn't work that way, and locals won't appreciate being steamrolled for American strategic priorities. But the pressure is real, and Wellington will have to decide how much it's willing to accommodate Washington's demands.
The era of easy neutrality is over. New Zealand can't sell to everyone, support everyone, and avoid hard choices forever. The minerals under its soil have become geopolitical assets, whether it likes it or not.
