Elon Musk's SpaceX is reportedly targeting a confidential IPO filing as soon as next month, according to Bloomberg, which could make it the largest public market debut in history.

Let's cut through the hype and talk about what this actually means for regular investors, because there's a big difference between "exciting" and "good for your portfolio."

First, the good news: SpaceX is a legitimate business. They have Starlink (satellite internet with paying subscribers), launch contracts with NASA and commercial clients, and a near-monopoly on reusable rockets. This isn't a speculative EV startup burning cash - SpaceX is reportedly profitable or near-profitable depending on how you account for R&D.

At its last private funding round, SpaceX was valued at roughly $350 billion, making it one of the most valuable private companies on Earth. If it goes public at that valuation, it would be bigger than most companies in the S&P 500 on day one.

Now, the reality check: Should you buy on day one?

Probably not. Here's why.

SpaceX insiders and early investors have been holding illiquid shares for years. When the IPO hits, there will be a lock-up period (typically 180 days) where insiders can't sell. Once that expires, expect selling pressure as people who bought at $10 billion valuation cash out at $350 billion+.

Look at recent mega-IPOs. Rivian debuted at $100+ and is now in the $10-15 range. Coinbase opened at $380+ and traded as low as $40. The pattern is clear: institutional investors get the IPO price, retail investors buy the first-day pop, and then gravity kicks in.

SpaceX will likely be different in that it has real revenue and real margins, but the valuation is already pricing in decades of growth. You're not getting a bargain at $350 billion.

The institutional vs. retail access problem: Confidential IPO filings mean details are limited until close to launch. Institutional investors will get roadshow access, detailed financials, and allocation priority. Retail investors will get whatever's left after Goldman Sachs and Fidelity take their fill.

If you really want exposure to SpaceX, here's what I'd do: Wait. Let the initial hype settle. Let the first earnings report come out. Let the lock-up expire. See what the business actually looks like as a public company. Then make a decision.

SpaceX isn't going anywhere. If the business is as good as people think, it'll still be a good investment at $300 billion in six months. And if it's not, you'll have avoided a very expensive lesson in momentum investing.

The people who make money on IPOs are the ones who got in at $10 billion, not the ones buying at $350 billion on day one.