A new YouGov survey says Sinners is both the movie Americans most want to win Best Picture and the one they think will actually take home the trophy. Which raises an interesting question: when has public opinion ever mattered at the Oscars?

Let's look at the data. Sinners leading in both "should win" and "will win" categories suggests genuine enthusiasm, not just awards-season momentum. That's relatively rare. Usually the public favorite is something the Academy won't touch, and the presumed winner is something most Americans haven't seen.

But here's the thing about public favorites: they don't win Best Picture. At least not consistently. The Shape of Water beat Three Billboards. Moonlight upset La La Land. Parasite shocked exactly nobody who understands Academy voting patterns.

The Academy votes for what it thinks represents prestige cinema, not what played well in Peoria. Sometimes those align - Everything Everywhere All at Once was both popular and critically adored. But often the Best Picture winner is the film that makes voters feel sophisticated for choosing it.

Sinners has advantages. It's accessible without being populist, technically accomplished without being showy, and addresses social themes without being preachy. That's Oscar catnip. But so were plenty of films that lost to something more "important."

The public opinion poll tells us what Americans who pay attention to awards season think. The Academy vote tells us what 10,000 industry professionals think. Those circles overlap, but they're not the same.

Still, if I were placing bets - and I predicted Oppenheimer six months early, thank you very much - Sinners feels like the safe choice. Public enthusiasm plus critical respect usually equals gold statues. We'll find out if conventional wisdom holds.

In Hollywood, nobody knows anything - except me, occasionally.