Nigeria's President Bola Tinubu isn't making polite requests. After meeting with Shell CEO Wael Sawan in January 2026, his message was unambiguous: the Bonga South West deepwater oil project must reach final investment decision before his first term ends in May 2027.
The stakes are massive. Sawan confirmed Shell and its partners plan to invest up to $20 billion in the project—$10 billion in capital expenditure, $10 billion in operating costs—making it one of the largest energy projects in the world.
"Your team are amongst the best that we are dealing with anywhere in the world," Sawan told Tinubu. "That professionalism allows us to have the confidence to continue to invest."
But confidence alone doesn't greenlight a $20 billion bet. Nigeria has spent years watching oil majors divest from onshore operations plagued by pipeline theft, community disputes, and regulatory uncertainty. Shell itself sold multiple onshore assets in 2024, retreating to deepwater projects where risks are more manageable.
Now Tinubu's administration is gambling that aggressive reform can reverse the exodus. The government has approved "ring-fenced and investment-linked" fiscal incentives for Bonga South West—targeted tax breaks and production-sharing terms designed to attract capital without gutting future revenues.
"These are not blanket concessions," Tinubu emphasized. "They are focused on new capital and incremental production, strong local content delivery, and in-country value addition."
The project would produce 150,000 barrels per day from a floating production, storage, and offloading vessel. Pre-front-end engineering work is set to begin immediately, with Shell targeting final investment decision in 2027. If successful, the project would create thousands of direct and indirect jobs, generate foreign exchange inflows, and deepen Nigerian participation in offshore engineering and fabrication.
But Nigeria has been here before. Bonga South West has been "long-stalled," as industry publications describe it, caught in the familiar cycle of promising announcements followed by delays. Shell has already committed $7 billion to Nigeria since 2023, including the Bonga North project and the HI gas field, both proceeding. The question is whether the country's regulatory environment has genuinely stabilized or whether this is another round of optimistic projections.
Dr. Yemi Osibogun, an energy economist at the University of Lagos, is cautiously hopeful. "Tinubu's team understands that policy uncertainty kills investment faster than high taxes," he says. "If they can deliver on regulatory speed and stability, this could be a turning point."
The project's success would matter far beyond Nigeria. It would signal that Africa's largest oil producer can compete for megaproject investment against Angola, Guyana, and the Middle East. Failure would reinforce the narrative that African energy is too risky, too complicated, too unpredictable.
Sawan promised to "fast-track the schedule as much as possible." Tinubu is betting his administration's economic credibility on whether Shell delivers. In an industry where "soon" often means "never," Nigeria is demanding something different: precision, timelines, and results.
54 countries, 2,000 languages, 1.4 billion people. This is one story about whether Africa can build the investment climate its ambitions require.
