Even Moscow is looking for the exits on Nicolás Maduro—but the Venezuelan dictator is not going anywhere.
According to reporting by Spanish newspaper ABC, Russia floated an offer to the United States to facilitate Maduro's departure from Venezuela in exchange for sanctions relief and guarantees for Russian energy interests in the country.
Maduro rejected the proposal outright, sources familiar with the negotiations told the newspaper. He has no intention of leaving power voluntarily—even if his most powerful international backer would prefer he did.
Why Moscow wants Maduro gone
Russia has been Venezuela's lifeline for years, providing diplomatic cover at the United Nations, arms sales, and energy sector support. But Maduro has become a liability.
His government is so dysfunctional that even Russia's investments are at risk. Venezuela's oil production has collapsed from 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1990s to under 800,000 today. The country cannot maintain its own infrastructure, let alone service its debts to Moscow.
Worse, Maduro's grip on power is so tenuous that Russia must constantly prop him up—militarily, diplomatically, economically. That was manageable when oil prices were high and Russia had cash to spare. Now, with Russia focused on Ukraine and its economy strained by sanctions, Venezuela is an expensive distraction.
A negotiated transition—one that preserves Russian energy contracts while allowing a more competent government to take over—would serve Moscow's interests better than endless crisis management.
Why Maduro said no
For Maduro, leaving power means facing justice. The International Criminal Court has an open investigation into crimes against humanity committed by his regime. The United States has indicted him on drug trafficking charges. Exile, even with guarantees, is not safety—it is a gilded cage.
More fundamentally, Maduro knows that power is the only thing keeping him alive. The moment he steps down, he becomes expendable—to his enemies, to rival factions within Chavismo, even to the generals who have kept him in power.
He has seen what happens to Latin American strongmen who give up power voluntarily: they end up in The Hague, in exile, or dead. He is betting that as long as he controls the military and the state apparatus, he can outlast international pressure.
What this means for Venezuela's crisis
The Russia offer—and Maduro's rejection—signals that the Venezuela crisis is entering a new phase.
For years, the international community operated on the assumption that external pressure—sanctions, diplomatic isolation, support for opposition leader Juan Guaidó—would eventually force Maduro out. That strategy failed.
Then the assumption shifted: perhaps a negotiated transition, brokered by allies like Norway or Mexico, could provide Maduro with an exit ramp. That strategy has also failed.
Now, even Maduro's own backers are signaling they would accept his departure. And still, he refuses.
This is not a man who will be negotiated out of power. He will have to be removed—either by internal collapse, military coup, or popular uprising. None of those outcomes are imminent.
The diaspora keeps growing
Meanwhile, more than 7 million Venezuelans—nearly a quarter of the population—have fled the country. They are in Colombia, Peru, Chile, Ecuador, Brazil, and the United States.
They send remittances that keep families alive. They lobby their host governments to maintain pressure on Caracas. They build lives in exile while waiting for a country they can return to.
For them, the news that even Russia wants Maduro gone offers little comfort. They know that wanting him gone and removing him are two very different things.
Twenty countries, 650 million people. Venezuela's crisis is not just Venezuelan—it is regional, it is hemispheric, it is a wound that refuses to heal.
And as long as Nicolás Maduro refuses to leave, it will keep bleeding.
Somos nuestra propia historia. But some chapters, we cannot close alone.
