Russia is sustaining casualty rates in Ukraine that dwarf the losses that helped bring down the Soviet Union, according to new analysis comparing current military losses to the decade-long Soviet-Afghan War.
Russian forces are losing between 900 and 1,000 soldiers daily—killed or wounded—a pace that resulted in 35,000 irrecoverable losses in December 2025 alone, according to data compiled by United24Media. That single month exceeded the total casualties the Soviet Union sustained over ten years in Afghanistan, where approximately 33,000 to 38,000 soldiers were killed or wounded between 1979 and 1989.
The scale of losses reflects the grinding nature of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, where Russia has pursued costly offensive operations despite limited territorial gains. Fourth-quarter 2025 saw 100,000 total losses, bringing the year's casualties to more than 400,000. Over nearly four years of fighting, cumulative Russian losses have reached approximately 1.2 million soldiers—a figure that is thirty times higher than the entire Afghan campaign.
In Russia, as in much of the former Soviet space, understanding requires reading between the lines. The Afghan War generated significant domestic opposition, with families of soldiers organizing protests and demanding their sons' return home. That grassroots pressure contributed substantially to the Soviet decision to withdraw from Afghanistan in 1989.
The current situation presents a stark contrast. Despite casualties that far exceed those of the Afghan conflict, Russia has seen no comparable public mobilization or protests demanding accountability. The Kremlin has carefully managed information flows, avoiding public mobilization announcements and suppressing casualty reporting to prevent the kind of domestic unrest that characterized the final years of the Soviet-Afghan War.
Vladimir Putin's government has instead relied on financial incentives, recruitment from economically disadvantaged regions, and the use of prisoners to sustain military operations without triggering widespread public opposition. The contrast between one million soldiers who have not returned home and the absence of visible public protest underscores how effectively the Kremlin has controlled the information environment around the war.
For historical perspective, the current Ukrainian conflict has already resulted in more Russian military fatalities than the two Chechen Wars combined, which cost between 12,000 and 40,000 lives depending on whether official or independent estimates are used. Annual losses in Ukraine are roughly ten times those sustained over the entire decade in Afghanistan.
Independent Russian sources have corroborated significant casualty figures through careful analysis of regional burial records, social media posts by families, and payments to next of kin, though exact numbers remain difficult to verify given the closed nature of Russian military operations. Western intelligence estimates have generally aligned with Ukrainian assessments regarding the scale of Russian losses.
The casualty rates reflect both the intensity of the fighting and the tactical approach Russian forces have employed, which has frequently relied on infantry assaults across heavily fortified defensive lines. Military analysts note that such operations typically result in high attacker casualties, particularly when combined with the widespread use of artillery, drones, and precision-guided munitions that characterize modern warfare.
For Russia's military establishment, sustaining such losses while avoiding the kind of domestic political backlash that forced Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan represents a significant shift in how the state manages public perception of military operations. Whether that control can be maintained as casualties continue to mount remains one of the central questions about the war's trajectory.
