Ukraine humiliated the Russian Black Sea Fleet. A sustained campaign of naval drone and missile strikes forced repeated withdrawals from Sevastopol, sank or disabled more than a third of Russia's Black Sea Fleet assets, and compelled Moscow to relocate its flagship naval base of operations. Now, Ukrainian military intelligence warns, Russia is preparing its answer: a mass deployment of its own naval drones.
Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) has assessed that Russia is ramping up production of naval unmanned surface vehicles at a rate of up to 40 units per month, with intent to shift from limited experimental deployment to systematic mass use in the Black Sea. The assessment, reported by United24 Media, represents a significant upgrade in Russian naval drone ambitions and a direct response to the tactical model Ukraine pioneered.
The Russian programs include the Skat platform currently in production, alongside systems under development: the Triton, capable of speeds up to 100 kilometers per hour; the Prosveet-1 autonomous underwater vehicle; and additional concepts designated Odduvanchik, Murena, Vizir, and Katran. The range and variety of platforms signal that Russia is attempting to replicate Ukraine's approach of fielding a diverse, adaptable naval drone fleet rather than pursuing a single technological solution.
Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk noted the imitative logic at work: Russia is "copying the logic: a fast platform, low visibility, modularity, an attempt at integration into a system" — mirroring Ukraine's operational model rather than any specific platform design. That assessment captures something important about the evolving technological competition in the Black Sea: Moscow has recognized that Ukraine's asymmetric naval strategy changed the calculus of surface warfare in enclosed waters, and is attempting to deploy it symmetrically against Ukrainian ports and shipping.
HUR's current assessment is carefully hedged: "no systemic or effective use of these assets with significant combat impact has been recorded so far." Russian naval drones face persistent challenges with communications, navigation, and component access — the same sanctions-enforcement gaps that allow Western electronics into Russian attack drones also affect the more sophisticated guidance systems naval drones require. The 40-unit monthly production target is an intent figure, not a confirmed operational capability.
But Russia has demonstrated a consistent pattern of learning from early-stage failures and scaling capabilities that initially showed limited effect. The Kremlin views naval drones as a component of a broader Black Sea strategy aimed at pressuring Ukrainian shipping and establishing what HUR describes as a "de facto blockade" — an ambition expressed through ongoing missile and drone strikes on the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Izmail.
The strategic stakes extend beyond Ukrainian shores. The Black Sea grain corridor — through which Ukrainian agricultural exports reach global markets in Africa and the Middle East — depends on freedom of navigation in waters Russia increasingly contests. A mass naval drone campaign targeting Ukrainian port infrastructure would have cascading food security consequences far from the battlefield.
This buildup connects to a broader Russian naval assertiveness noted this week. Russian Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev threatened Russian naval deployment to halt Western seizures of sanctioned Russian merchant vessels — a separate theater, but together these signals indicate Moscow views naval power as an increasingly important instrument across multiple domains simultaneously.
Ukraine's response capacity in the Black Sea has been one of the war's most striking asymmetric successes. The question now is whether that success can be sustained against an adversary that has studied Ukrainian methods and is mobilizing industrial resources to replicate them at scale.
In Ukraine, as across nations defending their sovereignty, resilience is not just survival — it is determination to build a better future. That determination is being tested in the Black Sea as directly as it is on land.
