The Kremlin has stopped publishing President Vladimir Putin's weekly approval ratings after the metric suffered its steepest decline in eight years, according to Ukrainian media citing Russian polling sources, in a sign that public support for the war and the president may be eroding more rapidly than official narratives acknowledge.
The state-funded Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM), which has published Putin's approval rating weekly since 2014, did not release data for the past two weeks despite maintaining its regular polling schedule. Ukrainian outlet NV reported that sources within Russian polling organizations indicated the president's approval had fallen by 12 percentage points in recent weeks, the largest drop since 2017.
To understand today's headlines, we must look at yesterday's decisions. The suppression of unfavorable polling data is not new in Russia, but the timing and scale of the reported drop make this instance particularly significant. Putin's approval ratings have been a cornerstone of his political legitimacy, typically hovering above 70% in official polls even during economic downturns and military setbacks.
The decision to withhold the data is itself revealing. In authoritarian systems where polling organizations operate under state influence, the choice to publish or suppress numbers sends clear signals about regime concerns. That the Kremlin would rather face questions about non-publication than release the actual figures suggests the numbers are politically damaging.
Several factors may be contributing to declining approval. The war in Ukraine has dragged into its third year with no clear endpoint. Casualty figures, though tightly controlled by the state, have reached levels that affect families across Russia. Economic sanctions, while not collapsing the Russian economy, have reduced living standards and limited access to Western goods and services.
Ukrainian military strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have also brought the war home in ways previous phases did not. Drone attacks on refineries have caused fuel shortages and price increases in several regions. The Kremlin's inability to prevent these strikes contradicts state media narratives about Russian military superiority.
"Public opinion in Russia is not monolithic," said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the political analysis firm R.Politik. "There's always been a gap between official approval ratings and private sentiment. What may be happening now is that gap widening to a point where even manipulated polls can't hide it."
The reliability of Russian polling has long been questioned by Western analysts. In an environment where expressing opposition to the government can result in legal consequences, respondents may not provide honest answers. State polling organizations have institutional incentives to produce results favorable to the Kremlin. Yet even accounting for these distortions, a 12-point drop would be significant.
Historical precedent offers some context. Putin's approval rating dipped sharply in 2017 following unpopular pension reforms that raised retirement ages. The government eventually modified the reforms and launched a public relations campaign that stabilized the numbers. Whether similar tactics will work now, amid ongoing war and economic pressure, is uncertain.
The Kremlin has not officially commented on why the weekly ratings have not been published. A spokesperson for VTsIOM told Russian media that the organization is "reviewing its methodology" but provided no timeline for when regular publication would resume.
For Russian opposition figures, many of whom are in exile or imprisoned, the reported polling drop offers a rare piece of positive news. However, they caution against over-interpreting a single data point, particularly one that has not been independently verified.
"Declining approval is not the same as political opposition," said Leonid Volkov, a close associate of imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny. "Russians may be unhappy with the war's cost, but that doesn't mean they're ready to challenge the system."
The episode illustrates a fundamental challenge for authoritarian regimes that rely partly on performance legitimacy. When economic growth stalls and military adventures prove costly, the implicit social contract—political passivity in exchange for stability and prosperity—begins to fray. Managing public opinion becomes more difficult, and the tools of propaganda and censorship may not suffice.
Whether Putin's approval has truly plunged or whether the reported numbers represent internal polling not meant for public release remains unclear. What is clear is that the Kremlin felt the need to suppress data it has previously published routinely. That decision alone tells a story about the regime's confidence in its public standing.
