Portugal's center-right just did something extraordinary: they're telling their voters to support a left-wing candidate for president. The reason? Keeping the far-right out of the Belém Palace.
This is the cordon sanitaire in action - the unwritten agreement among mainstream European parties to cooperate against populist and far-right movements, even at the cost of ideological coherence. And it's being tested across Europe as far-right parties surge from France to the Netherlands to Germany.
The Portuguese presidential election on February 9 features three serious candidates: Mário Centeno, the Socialist former finance minister; Paulo Rangel, the center-right candidate; and André Ventura, leader of the far-right Chega party who is polling strong enough to force a second-round runoff.
In a normal election, the center-right Democratic Alliance would campaign exclusively for their candidate Rangel. But these aren't normal times. With Ventura's Chega potentially reaching the second round, the center-right faces an uncomfortable choice: maintain party loyalty or prevent a far-right president.
Senior figures in the center-right Social Democratic Party and CDS-People's Party are now publicly stating they would vote for the Socialist Centeno in a second round against Ventura. Some are going further - suggesting center-right voters should consider voting tactically for Centeno in the first round to prevent Ventura from advancing at all.
Translation: Portugal's conservatives would rather have a left-wing president from the party they just defeated in parliamentary elections than risk a far-right one.
The political calculation is clear. While Portugal's presidency is largely ceremonial, the symbolic weight of a Chega president would be immense. Ventura has called for chemical castration of sex offenders, proposed banning "Marxist" parties, and built his movement on anti-Roma rhetoric and attacks on mainstream institutions.
A Ventura presidency wouldn't give him executive power - Portugal is a semi-presidential system where the prime minister holds most authority - but it would legitimize Chega as a mainstream party and give Ventura a platform to reshape Portuguese politics.
The center-right's tactical voting strategy reflects a broader European pattern. In France, mainstream parties coordinated to deny Marine Le Pen's National Rally parliamentary majorities. In Germany, CDU leader Friedrich Merz has ruled out coalitions with the far-right AfD even in regions where it might be mathematically necessary. In the Netherlands, traditional parties initially resisted giving Geert Wilders the prime ministership despite his election victory.
But the strategy's effectiveness is debatable. Critics argue that mainstream parties cooperating to exclude popular movements simply proves populist claims about a self-serving "establishment" conspiracy. Every election where center-right and center-left cooperate to block the far-right potentially validates far-right narratives about rigged systems.
And the strategy can backfire. In France, years of center-right and center-left tactical voting haven't stopped National Rally's growth - they may have accelerated it by forcing Emmanuel Macron's centrists to rely on left-wing support, alienating conservative voters. In Germany, the CDU's refusal to work with AfD has left some eastern regions ungovernable.
Portugal's test case matters because the country was long seen as resistant to far-right populism. While Chega only entered parliament in 2019, it won 18% in last year's election - fourth place, but rising fast. If tactical voting fails to stop Ventura, or if it succeeds but further radicalizes his supporters, other European democracies will be watching.
The Socialists, meanwhile, face their own dilemma. Do they campaign on Centeno's qualifications and vision, or simply as the "anyone but Ventura" candidate? The latter strategy might win the presidency but would validate far-right claims that mainstream parties lack positive agendas.
Polling suggests the tactical voting strategy might work - Centeno leads in first-round surveys, and would likely defeat either Rangel or Ventura in a runoff. But first-round polling is notoriously unreliable when tactical voting is in play, as voters try to game out the most effective way to cast their ballot.
What's certain is that Portuguese conservatives are willing to lose a presidency to their left-wing opponents rather than risk winning it for the far-right. Whether that's a principled defense of democratic norms or a tactical error that will empower the movement it's meant to stop - Europe will find out on February 9.
Brussels decides more than you think. But Lisbon's voters will decide whether the cordon sanitaire still works - or whether mainstream parties' tactical voting is just postponing the inevitable.
