A majority of Polish citizens now believe the United States is no longer a reliable ally, according to a new poll that marks a dramatic shift in one of NATO's most historically pro-American member states.
The survey, reported by Notes from Poland, reveals that Polish confidence in American security guarantees has plummeted amid growing uncertainty about Washington's commitment to European defense.
In Poland, as across Central Europe, history is never far from the surface—and neither is the memory of occupation. For decades, Poland has stood as one of the most steadfast supporters of the transatlantic alliance, shaped by bitter experiences under Soviet domination and a deep-seated wariness of Russia. The poll results represent a fundamental erosion of that relationship.
Front-Line Fears
The survey comes as Poland continues its unprecedented military buildup, positioning itself as a crucial front-line NATO state on the alliance's eastern flank. Warsaw has committed to spending over 4% of GDP on defense—one of the highest rates in the alliance—and is rapidly modernizing its armed forces with advanced American equipment.
Yet Polish security analysts note that hardware purchases alone cannot substitute for the political certainty that has underpinned European security architecture since 1949. "Poland has invested billions in American weapons systems based on the assumption of American reliability," one Warsaw-based defense expert said. "That assumption is now being questioned at the highest levels."
The timing of the poll is particularly significant. Poland borders Ukraine, where ongoing conflict has heightened awareness of Russian military capabilities and intentions. Poland has also served as a primary logistics hub for Western military aid to Kyiv, hosting thousands of allied troops and becoming a critical node in NATO's deterrence posture.
Historical Echoes
For Poles, the question of great power guarantees carries historical weight. The country's modern consciousness is shaped by the 1939 Anglo-French security guarantees that proved hollow when Nazi Germany invaded, and by the subsequent Yalta Conference, where Western powers accepted Soviet domination of Eastern Europe.
These historical parallels are not lost on Polish politicians across the spectrum. Even pro-Western, liberal politicians in Warsaw have begun questioning whether Poland should rely primarily on American security commitments or accelerate efforts to build European defense autonomy.
The poll results also reflect broader European anxieties about American unpredictability in foreign policy. Questions about Washington's long-term commitment to NATO have intensified debates about European strategic autonomy and whether the continent can defend itself without American military power.
Regional Implications
Poland's shifting perception of the United States has immediate implications for the entire Visegrad Group and Baltic states, which have traditionally looked to Warsaw as a bridge to Washington. If Poland—historically the most Atlanticist country in the region—doubts American reliability, it signals a potential realignment of Central European security thinking.
Polish officials have responded to the uncertainty by deepening bilateral defense cooperation with Britain, France, and regional partners. Warsaw has also pushed for permanent NATO bases on Polish territory and advocated for stronger European defense commitments independent of American leadership.
The poll findings arrive as European leaders debate proposals for greater defense integration and increased military spending. Former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi recently called for European federalization to address precisely these security concerns, arguing that Europe must "choose to become a power" in an unstable world.
For Poland, a nation that regained independence only 35 years ago and joined NATO just 27 years ago, the question of reliable allies is not academic. It is existential. The poll suggests that Poles are increasingly concluding they cannot take American guarantees for granted—a conclusion with profound implications for transatlantic relations and European security.
