The Philippines would be "committing suicide" if it accepts China's terms for joint oil and gas exploration in the West Philippine Sea, former Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio warned today, as Manila and Beijing resume long-stalled energy negotiations.
The stark language from Carpio, the country's leading voice on maritime sovereignty, comes as the Marcos administration faces mounting pressure to address Philippines' energy crisis - the country imports 65% of its petroleum - while not conceding territorial claims in waters that hold an estimated 5.4 billion barrels of oil and 55.1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
Speaking to ABS-CBN News, Carpio said Beijing's proposed framework requires Manila to acknowledge the disputed waters as Chinese territory in exchange for development rights. "If we sign this, we lose everything," he said. "We get temporary fuel access and give up permanent sovereignty."
The dilemma is acute. Philippines power rates are among the highest in Asia at ₱11.50 per kilowatt-hour, and domestic production meets only 35% of demand. The Malampaya gas field, which supplies 20% of Luzon's electricity, is depleting faster than expected. Without new sources, brownouts could become routine by 2028.
China has offered joint development in the Reed Bank area, where seismic surveys confirm massive reserves. But the offer comes with strings: recognition of Beijing's nine-dash line claim, which the 2016 Hague tribunal explicitly invalidated.
Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo confirmed this week that talks have resumed, but declined to discuss terms. Energy Secretary Raphael Lotilla called the negotiations "complex" and said Manila is exploring alternatives, including liquefied natural gas imports and renewable energy expansion.
Other ASEAN claimants are watching closely. Vietnam has faced similar pressure in the South China Sea, and Malaysia maintains its own claims in overlapping waters. None have accepted China's joint development terms as currently structured.
For Maria Santos, who runs a small factory in Bulacan, the sovereignty debate feels distant compared to her monthly electricity bills, which have doubled since 2024. "I understand the principle," she told local media. "But we need power to keep our machines running."
Ten countries, 700 million people, one region - and for the Philippines, the question is whether desperation makes negotiating with Beijing unavoidable, or whether sovereignty cannot be bargained away, no matter the price of electricity.
