Iran has granted safe passage to 20 Pakistani-flagged vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, Islamabad announced Friday, in the latest indication that Tehran is implementing a selective enforcement strategy that permits transit for neutral and friendly nations while maintaining its closure to American, European, and Gulf Arab shipping.
The authorization, reported by Forbes, brings the total number of Pakistani ships permitted through the strategic waterway to 47 since Iran announced a partial closure on March 17. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar characterized the development as a "meaningful step toward de-escalation" and credited Islamabad's diplomatic engagement with Tehran for securing the transit rights.
The selective passage policy reveals Iran's strategic approach to the strait closure: using control over the world's most important oil chokepoint not as an absolute blockade, but as a sophisticated tool for rewarding allies, punishing adversaries, and demonstrating that Tehran can regulate global commerce without triggering responses that would unite the international community against it.
To understand today's headlines, we must look at yesterday's decisions. The Strait of Hormuz, a 21-mile-wide channel between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, carries approximately 21 million barrels of oil per day—roughly 21 percent of global petroleum consumption. Iranian threats to close the strait have been a recurring feature of Gulf tensions for decades, but until mid-March, Tehran had never implemented a sustained closure. The current partial blockade represents a calculated escalation: disruptive enough to impose economic costs on adversaries, but selective enough to avoid the total closure that might prompt military intervention to forcibly reopen the waterway.
Analysis of Iranian transit permissions over the past two weeks reveals a clear pattern. Ships flagged to Pakistan, China, India, Turkey, and several Southeast Asian nations have received passage authorizations with minimal delay. Vessels registered to United States, United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, and Gulf Arab states have been systematically denied transit, with some redirected to alternative routes around southern Africa—a detour adding approximately 15 days and $500,000 in fuel costs to typical Asia-bound voyages.
European-flagged vessels face an intermediate status. Germany and France have seen some ships granted passage while others are denied, apparently based on cargo content and ultimate destination. Italian and Spanish vessels have generally been permitted transit, reflecting those countries' efforts to maintain diplomatic channels with Tehran despite the Iran-U.S. conflict.
For Pakistan, securing safe passage represents a significant diplomatic achievement and economic necessity. The country imports approximately 70 percent of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, with alternative supply routes from Central Asia insufficient to meet national demand. Disruption to oil imports would devastate Pakistan's already fragile economy, which is operating under an International Monetary Fund stabilization program.
Pakistani officials have cultivated ties with Iran carefully throughout the current crisis, avoiding public statements supportive of American military operations while offering to mediate between Washington and Tehran. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif spoke by telephone with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on March 25, reportedly emphasizing Pakistan's neutrality and shared interest in regional stability.
The selective passage policy creates complex diplomatic dynamics for countries seeking transit authorization. Nations must balance their relationships with both the United States and Iran, knowing that public support for American military operations could result in denial of passage rights, while excessive accommodation of Tehran risks antagonizing Washington.
India, which has also secured passage for its vessels, has adopted a similar approach to Pakistan: maintaining diplomatic neutrality, continuing oil purchases from Iran despite American sanctions, and avoiding participation in any multinational effort to forcibly reopen the strait. New Delhi imports approximately 85 percent of its oil, much of it transiting through Hormuz, making the waterway's status an existential economic concern.
China, Iran's most important strategic partner, has faced no restrictions on shipping through the strait. Chinese-flagged vessels continue regular transits, and Beijing has used its privileged status to offer fee-based "flagging services" to ships from other nations—allowing non-Chinese vessels to temporarily adopt Chinese registration to secure Iranian passage authorization. Several Japanese and South Korean shipping companies have reportedly utilized these services, though the practice exists in a legal gray area under international maritime law.
The selective closure strategy serves multiple Iranian objectives. Economically, it imposes significant costs on hostile nations—particularly Japan and South Korea, which are heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil—while minimizing the global economic disruption that might galvanize international support for military action to reopen the strait. Diplomatically, it demonstrates Iranian leverage over the global economy without the total closure that would likely be treated as an act of war justifying large-scale military response.
Military analysts note that the United States possesses the capability to forcibly reopen the strait through naval operations, but doing so would require significant resources, risk substantial casualties, and potentially expand the conflict. The selective closure complicates the calculus: if neutral nations can still transit, is the disruption severe enough to justify military action?
"Iran has found a sweet spot," said Michael Knights, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "They're inflicting real economic pain on adversaries while giving neutral countries an incentive to stay neutral. Militarily forcing the strait open becomes harder to justify if half the world's shipping is still getting through."
Energy markets have responded to the partial closure with significant price volatility. Brent crude oil prices have risen approximately 34 percent since mid-March, reaching $118 per barrel Friday, though prices have not approached the panic levels that would likely result from total closure. Asian nations with assured transit—China, India, Pakistan—have seen more moderate price increases, while Japan and South Korea face petroleum costs approximately 45 percent above pre-crisis levels.
The longer the selective closure continues, the more it reshapes global shipping patterns and economic relationships. Countries dependent on Hormuz transit face pressure to accommodate Iranian diplomatic positions to secure passage rights, potentially fracturing international unity on sanctions and other Iran-related issues. The strategy demonstrates that even a regional power with limited conventional military capability can exercise significant global economic leverage through control of strategic chokepoints.
