At Nvidia's annual developer conference on Monday, CEO Jensen Huang took the stage and delivered a number that would have sent the stock soaring a year ago: he expects purchase orders for the company's Blackwell and Vera Rubin chips to reach $1 trillion through 2027.

The stock barely moved.

That muted reaction tells you everything about where we are in the AI boom. When a CEO announces trillion-dollar order forecasts and the market shrugs, it means expectations have either caught up to reality, or we've reached peak hype.

Huang said demand is booming from startups and big companies alike. He also unveiled the Nvidia Groq 3 Language Processing Unit, the company's first chip from the startup it mostly acquired through a $20 billion asset purchase in December. That was Nvidia's largest deal ever, for context.

So why didn't the stock pop?

Because the market already knew this. Or at least, it was already betting on it. When analysts talk about something being "priced in," this is what they mean. The stock has run so hard on AI expectations that even a trillion-dollar forecast isn't news anymore.

For retail investors, this is the tricky part of momentum stocks. The thesis can be completely correct—AI demand is real, Nvidia has a dominant position, and that $1 trillion number might even be conservative—but if the stock already reflects all of that, where's the upside?

This doesn't mean Nvidia is a sell. It means the easy money has been made. From here, you're betting on whether the company can beat those already-sky-high expectations.

One thing worth watching: Nvidia's pivot into software and services. The Groq acquisition suggests the company knows it can't rely on chip sales forever. If they can build a recurring revenue model around AI infrastructure, that's a different growth story.

But right now, the market is telling you it's not surprised by trillion-dollar order books anymore. That's either a sign of how far we've come in the AI buildout, or a warning that the bar is too high.

If you're holding Nvidia, the question isn't whether AI is real. It's whether the stock has already absorbed all the good news for the next two years. And if you're thinking about buying here, ask yourself what it would take for the stock to surprise investors at this point.

Because a trillion dollars apparently isn't enough anymore.