Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and National MPs are meeting for the first time since polls showed a dramatic decline in support for the governing coalition, with the opposition Labour Party surging in voter preference and raising the prospect of a political reversal less than 18 months after National's election victory.
The latest poll has National at just 28 percent, down from 38 percent at the election. Labour, written off as dead after their crushing defeat, has rebounded to 36 percent. The Greens and New Zealand First are also up, while National's coalition partners ACT has hemorrhaged support.
That's a spectacular collapse by any measure. Governments typically get a honeymoon period. National's lasted about six months before voters decided they'd made a terrible mistake.
MPs arriving at Parliament for the caucus meeting declined to speak to media, a stark contrast to the confident, media-savvy operation National ran during the election campaign. The silence speaks volumes about the party's internal panic.
What's driving the reversal? Start with the economy. National promised lower costs and better management. Instead, cost of living has worsened, petrol prices are surging, and the economy is teetering on the edge of recession. Voters don't forgive economic failure, especially when you campaigned on economic competence.
There's also policy missteps. The coalition government has alienated public sector workers with job cuts, angered environmentalists by scaling back climate initiatives, and frustrated infrastructure advocates by canceling rail and public transport projects. That's a lot of constituencies to annoy in a short period.
Luxon himself is proving less popular as Prime Minister than as opposition leader. His business background, which National sold as an asset, increasingly looks like a liability. Voters want empathy and connection, not corporate management speak and efficiency drives.
Labour, meanwhile, has been competent in opposition. New leader Chris Hipkins has avoided the mistakes of his disastrous final year as Prime Minister, focusing on kitchen table economics and avoiding the culture war battles that sank his government. It's working.
