The latest poll shows New Zealand's coalition government maintaining enough support to be re-elected, despite widespread public service cuts, environmental rollbacks, and severe weather emergencies—suggesting Kiwi voters are unbothered by the sharp rightward turn.
The Stuff poll shows the National-ACT-NZ First coalition would have sufficient seats to form government if an election were held now. Winston Peters' NZ First is on the rise, complicating the political landscape and potentially giving the veteran politician even more influence.
Mate, New Zealanders seem remarkably unbothered by a government that's cutting health services, dismantling environmental protections, and promoting fossil fuels while the country floods. What does that say about where New Zealand politics is headed?
The poll results are surprising to many observers who expected the coalition's aggressive policy agenda would erode support. The government has cut thousands of public service jobs, rolled back climate initiatives, and introduced legislation to abolish the Ministry for Environment entirely.
But voters appear to be prioritizing cost-of-living concerns and economic management over environmental and social policy. The coalition's "getting things done" messaging seems to be resonating, even as critics argue they're dismantling important institutions.
Winston Peters' resurgence is the wild card. NZ First gaining strength means the veteran political survivor could demand even more from his coalition partners. Peters has historically been unpredictable, willing to partner with either major party depending on terms. His increased leverage could push policy even further right—or create internal coalition tensions.
Opposition leader Chris Hipkins faces a difficult path back to government. Labour is polling weakly, still dealing with voter backlash from their time in office during COVID. The Greens have maintained support but not grown enough to offset Labour's struggles.
The political geography is telling. Auckland and urban centers show more support for opposition parties, while regional New Zealand backs the coalition. It's a familiar pattern—urban-rural political divides playing out in electoral geography.
For the Pacific region, New Zealand's political direction matters. Wellington has historically been a climate advocate and development partner for Pacific island nations. The coalition's retreat from climate ambition and environmental leadership leaves Pacific nations with fewer wealthy allies.
Fiji, Tuvalu, Kiribati, and other Pacific states watch New Zealand politics closely. When Wellington prioritizes fossil fuels over climate action, it undermines the Pacific's collective voice in international climate negotiations.
The poll also shows voters aren't particularly concerned about the government's environmental policy rollbacks, even as severe weather hammers the North Island. That disconnect between immediate climate impacts and political priorities is striking.
Environmental groups are frustrated but not surprised. They've long argued New Zealand voters don't prioritize climate action until disasters directly affect them—and even then, the political response is adaptation rhetoric rather than emissions reduction.
The next election isn't until 2026, giving the coalition time to implement its agenda. If these poll numbers hold, they'll have a mandate to continue dismantling environmental protections, cutting public services, and promoting fossil fuels.
For opposition parties, the challenge is clear: cost-of-living concerns are dominating voter priorities. Unless they can credibly address economic anxiety while advocating for environmental protection and public services, they'll struggle to win back power.
New Zealand is at a political crossroads. The poll suggests voters have chosen a direction—at least for now. Whether they'll stick with that choice as the coalition's policies take full effect remains to be seen. But right now, the government is winning the political argument, even as it loses the environmental one.
