"If Europeans feel they have no say in how American forces use facilities on European soil, of course there will be resistance," he said. "A genuine alliance requires genuine consultation, not just expectations that Europeans will provide territory while Americans make all strategic decisions."

Rasmussen proposed creating what he termed a "European Defense Union" that would coordinate military procurement, establish integrated command structures, and develop autonomous decision-making capabilities. This entity would remain within NATO but could potentially operate independently if American participation became unreliable.

Such an arrangement would require unprecedented integration among European militaries, which currently suffer from fragmentation, duplication, and incompatibility. Europe maintains dozens of different weapons systems, communications platforms, and logistics networks that complicate joint operations. Rationalization would require member states to surrender significant sovereignty over defense procurement and force structure—historically a non-starter.

Furthermore, the initiative would demand vastly increased European defense spending. Current European NATO members collectively spend approximately $350 billion annually on defense, compared to roughly $900 billion by the United States. Creating genuinely autonomous European capabilities would require sustained investment that politically constrained governments would struggle to deliver.

"The money question is always where these proposals founder," said Sophia Besch, a defense analyst at the Centre for European Reform. "European publics want better defense, but they don't want to pay for it. Politicians know this, so grand plans quietly die."

Yet Rasmussen argues that Europeans can no longer afford complacency. Russia's war in Ukraine demonstrated both European military weakness—dependence on American intelligence, logistics, and munitions became glaringly apparent—and American limits, as Washington proved unable or unwilling to provide Ukraine with sufficient support to achieve decisive victory.

"The Ukraine war should have been Europe's wake-up call," Rasmussen said. "We've hit the snooze button instead. At some point, there won't be another alarm."

The former Secretary General's warnings align with growing consensus among European security elites that the continent can no longer outsource its defense to America. French President Emmanuel Macron has championed "strategic autonomy," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has called for a "security revolution," and even traditionally Atlanticist Poland has massively increased defense spending while questioning whether American guarantees remain credible.

Whether these statements translate into concrete action remains doubtful. European defense integration has been discussed for decades with minimal progress. What Rasmussen brings to the debate is his unique credibility—a former NATO leader saying publicly that the alliance's survival is not guaranteed.

That message, coming now, carries particular weight. If those who dedicated careers to NATO's success no longer believe its future is secure under current arrangements, perhaps the institution truly does face an existential moment requiring fundamental transformation rather than incremental adjustment.

Italy Calls for New European Defense Alliance Independent of NATO

16 hours ago