If you're planning to check your portfolio Monday morning, you might want to pour a strong cup of coffee first. The death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in weekend Israeli strikes has traders scrambling to hedge positions in what could be one of the most volatile market opens in years.

Here's what you need to know: oil futures jumped 5% in after-hours trading on crypto exchanges that operate 24/7, while gold climbed 1.3% and silver gained 2%. These aren't small moves for a weekend—they're warning shots that Monday could get messy.

The core issue is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that handles about 20% of global oil supply. Iran has geographical control over this chokepoint, and with the regime now in constitutional crisis after losing both its Supreme Leader and IRGC Chief Commander, the risk of further escalation is very real. Already, nine LNG carriers have diverted routes, and Lloyd's of London is hiking war-risk insurance premiums.

For retail investors, the playbook is straightforward but not easy to execute: Don't panic, but do pay attention.

What's likely to spike: Energy stocks, defense contractors, gold miners, and anything tied to safe-haven assets. Traders on r/wallstreetbets are already posting screenshots of SPY puts purchased Friday afternoon—one user dropped $30,000 betting on a Monday selloff.

What's at risk: Pretty much everything else. Tech stocks that soared through February could see profit-taking. Airlines and travel stocks will get hammered if oil stays elevated. Emerging markets could see capital flight to U.S. Treasuries.

But here's the thing Wall Street won't tell you: geopolitical shocks have a terrible track record of creating lasting bear markets. The initial panic? Sure, that's real. But unless this escalates into a full regional war that shuts down Hormuz for months, markets typically recover within weeks.

The smart money isn't selling everything Monday morning. They're watching the Strait of Hormuz shipping data, monitoring diplomatic channels, and keeping cash reserves for opportunistic buying if quality stocks get irrationally punished.