Disney reportedly expects The Mandalorian and Grogu to open with less than Solo: A Star Wars Story.

Let that sink in. A film starring Baby Yoda - the most successful Star Wars character of the streaming era, the merchandising phenomenon, the meme king - is projected to underperform a movie that flopped so badly it killed Lucasfilm's anthology series.

If this doesn't prove theatrical Star Wars is broken, what would?

Solo opened to $84 million domestically in 2018 and topped out at $213 million domestic, $392 million worldwide. For any other franchise, those would be respectable numbers. For Star Wars, they were catastrophic. The film lost money after marketing, led to firings at Lucasfilm, and scared Disney away from theatrical Star Wars for years.

Now they're preparing to do worse with Grogu. And they apparently know it.

Here's what's fascinating: The Mandalorian is a proven hit. The first season saved Disney+. Pedro Pascal became a megastar. Baby Yoda broke the internet. The show has maintained quality across multiple seasons, which is more than you can say for most Star Wars content.

But Disney has spent five years training audiences that Star Wars belongs on streaming, not in theaters. And you can't just reverse that.

The Last Jedi made $1.3 billion worldwide. The Rise of Skywalker made $1 billion. Those are good numbers, but they represented a steady decline from The Force Awakens' $2 billion. The Skywalker saga ended not with a bang but with a whimper and a bunch of angry Reddit threads.

Then Disney pivoted entirely to streaming. The Mandalorian, The Book of Boba Fett, Obi-Wan Kenobi, Andor, Ahsoka - all on Disney+. Some were great (Andor), some were terrible (Boba Fett), but the message was clear: if you want Star Wars, subscribe.

Now they want audiences to pay $15-20 for a movie ticket instead. Good luck with that.

Compare this to Marvel, which has maintained a strong theatrical presence despite Disney+ shows. Deadpool & Wolverine made $1.3 billion last year. Spider-Man: No Way Home made $1.9 billion. Marvel has issues (superhero fatigue is real), but the theatrical model still works.

Star Wars doesn't have that luxury anymore. By making it a streaming franchise, Disney devalued it as a theatrical experience. And the box office projections for Mandalorian and Grogu reflect that.

There's also the creative question: does this even need to be a movie? The Mandalorian works as a TV show. It's structured as a TV show. Turning it into a feature film feels less like a creative choice and more like a desperate attempt to prove Star Wars still works theatrically.

Disney is stuck. They can't keep making Star Wars streaming-only - the shows are too expensive, and Disney+ isn't profitable. But they've trained audiences to expect Star Wars on streaming, and reversing that expectation is proving nearly impossible.

Maybe Mandalorian and Grogu will surprise everyone and over-perform. Maybe Baby Yoda's appeal will translate to massive ticket sales. Maybe I'm wrong.

But when Disney itself is reportedly lowering expectations below Solo, that tells you everything you need to know about where theatrical Star Wars stands in 2026.

In Hollywood, nobody knows anything - except that Baby Yoda can't save everything.