Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's approval ratings have fallen into negative territory for the first time since his return to office, with disapproval now exceeding approval in major polls—a development that has sparked both political concern and questions about the methodology behind the numbers.
According to the latest Datafolha survey published by Folha de S.Paulo, Lula's negative rating reached 40% while his positive evaluation dropped to 29%, marking a significant reversal from earlier in his third term when positive assessments consistently outpaced negative ones.
The timing of the decline, which accelerated sharply after Donald Trump assumed the US presidency in January 2026, has fueled speculation among Lula supporters about potential foreign interference in Brazilian public opinion. Social media posts from government allies have suggested American influence operations may be shaping media coverage and polling results, though no evidence has been presented to support these claims.
"You notice how all these news outlets suddenly started attacking him right after Trump took office?" asked one widely-shared post on Brazilian social media. "Smells like American fingers in our polls."
In Brazil, as across Latin America's giant, continental scale creates both opportunity and governance challenges. Economic pressures, persistent inflation, and the government's struggle to deliver on ambitious social programs have created genuine headwinds for Lula's administration—factors that political analysts say more plausibly explain the polling shift than conspiracy theories.
Eduardo Graeff, a political scientist at the Universidade de Brasília, cautioned against dismissing the polling data. "While skepticism about media narratives is healthy, Datafolha has a long track record of accuracy in Brazilian elections," he said. "The administration faces real challenges: inflation is affecting working-class families, promised infrastructure projects are delayed, and the fiscal situation constrains policy options."
The economic context cannot be ignored. Brazil's inflation rate, while lower than the peaks seen under former President Jair Bolsonaro, continues to erode purchasing power for ordinary Brazilians. Food prices in particular have risen sharply, hitting the constituencies that form Lula's traditional base of support. Fuel costs, a perennial political flashpoint in Brazil, have also climbed despite government efforts at price controls.
Additionally, Lula's relationship with the Trump administration has been fraught with tension. Trade disputes, disagreements over Amazon policy, and Brazil's leadership role in BRICS have created friction between Brasília and Washington. Conservative Brazilian media outlets, many aligned with Bolsonaro's political movement, have amplified American criticisms of Lula's government.
However, the conspiracy narrative about polling manipulation reflects deeper anxieties within the Brazilian left about media bias and foreign influence. These concerns are not entirely without foundation—Brazil has a history of CIA involvement in domestic politics, most notably during the 1964 military coup. Social media algorithms and targeted advertising have also been shown to influence political discourse in Brazil and elsewhere.
Ana Paula Henkel, a communications researcher at the Universidade de São Paulo, argued for a nuanced view. "We can acknowledge both that foreign actors may attempt to influence Brazilian politics through media and that Lula faces genuine domestic challenges," she said. "These aren't mutually exclusive realities."
The opposition, predictably, has seized on the polling decline as evidence of buyer's remorse among voters. Bolsonaro supporters have pointed to the numbers as vindication of their claims that Lula's victory in 2022 represented a temporary aberration rather than a genuine realignment of Brazilian politics.
Yet historical perspective suggests caution about reading too much into mid-term polling fluctuations. Lula's approval ratings during his previous presidencies (2003-2010) varied considerably, often recovering when economic conditions improved or major policy victories were achieved. His current government still has nearly two years before the next election cycle begins in earnest.
The administration's response has been to double down on economic initiatives. Recent announcements include expanded social housing programs, infrastructure investments in the Northeast and North regions, and renewed efforts to reduce Amazon deforestation—policies aimed at energizing Lula's base while demonstrating concrete governance achievements.
The Amazon agenda, in particular, represents both an opportunity and a challenge. While environmental protection resonates with international audiences and urban Brazilian voters, it can create tensions with agricultural interests and rural communities whose livelihoods depend on resource extraction. Balancing these competing pressures across Brazil's vast territory remains one of Lula's central governing challenges.
Looking ahead, political observers suggest the polling trend bears watching but shouldn't be overinterpreted. "Brazilian politics is volatile, and public opinion can shift rapidly," noted Graziella Testa, director of polling at Ipsos Brazil. "What matters most is whether the government can deliver tangible improvements in people's lives over the next year."
For now, the debate over the polls reflects broader questions about Brazilian democracy: How do citizens form political opinions in an era of fragmented media and social media echo chambers? What role, if any, do foreign actors play in shaping domestic political discourse? And can democratic institutions maintain legitimacy when each side questions the integrity of information that challenges their worldview?
These questions extend far beyond one set of polling numbers, touching on fundamental challenges facing democracies across Latin America and the world. As Brazil navigates these complexities, the Lula administration must address both the perception and the reality of its political standing—a task that requires effective governance, clear communication, and the ability to deliver results for everyday Brazilians.
