The Lebanese Army's policy of neutrality, long seen as essential to maintaining institutional cohesion in a fractured state, now faces its most significant test since independence. The question is no longer whether neutrality serves Lebanon, but whether Lebanon can survive neutrality's cost.
Last Saturday, the army issued a statement that conspicuously avoided mentioning the Cabinet's decision to classify Hezbollah's military activities as illegal. Instead, it emphasized "national unity" and stated that the solution lies in ending "Israeli aggressions" and "strengthening military capabilities."
The statement, analyzed by L'Orient Le Jour, reveals the army's calculation: direct confrontation with Hezbollah risks splitting the institution along sectarian lines, potentially triggering civil conflict. General Rodolph Haykal, like President Joseph Aoun before him, inherited a situation decades in the making that cannot be resolved through force alone.
The historical precedent often cited is Fouad Chehab, who as army commander during the 1958 crisis refused to align with President Camille Chamoun against Nasserist opponents. Chehab's neutrality preserved army cohesion and prevented sectarian civil war. His stance was vindicated when he subsequently became president and implemented reforms that strengthened state institutions.
But the contemporary situation differs fundamentally from 1958. Then, Chehab's neutrality prevented internal Lebanese factions from using the army as a sectarian weapon. External powers might support various sides, but the army's stance itself did not invite foreign military intervention.
Today, the army's inaction regarding Hezbollah directly enables continued conflict. Israeli military operations explicitly target Hezbollah's infrastructure, which exists throughout Lebanese territory. The state's failure to assert weapons monopoly provides the justification for ongoing strikes.
The first warning sign came in September 2025, when Hezbollah organized a ceremony projecting the image of former leader onto the Raouche Rock in . Prime Minister opposed the event as provocative. Hezbollah proceeded anyway, in open defiance of government authority.

