New Zealand's governing coalition is facing a reckoning from voters, with the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll showing Labour extending its lead to 4.8 percentage points over National—the widest margin since the coalition took power.
Labour now sits at 35.6 percent, up 0.6 points, while National has dropped to 30.8 percent, down 1.1 points. The numbers paint a picture of a government struggling to convince Kiwis it's heading in the right direction, with 50 percent saying the country's on the wrong track—up 3.4 points from the last poll.
But here's where it gets interesting, mate. Despite Labour's lead, the seat projections show a 60-60 deadlock between the coalition and opposition blocs. Labour would take 44 seats, National 38, with the minor parties holding the balance. New Zealand First has surged to 10.6 percent—up 0.8 points—giving Winston Peters 13 seats and making him kingmaker yet again.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is taking the brunt of voter dissatisfaction. His performance rating has cratered to a net score of -20.6—his weakest since becoming National leader. Half the electorate—50.4 percent—says he's performing poorly, while only 29.8 percent rate him well.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins isn't exactly riding high either. His net score sits at just 0.3, with 35.9 percent rating him well and 35.6 percent poorly. It's his lowest rating as Labour leader, though still miles ahead of Luxon's numbers.
In the preferred Prime Minister stakes, Hipkins leads with 20.7 percent to Luxon's 17.3 percent, but Peters is breathing down their necks at 13.1 percent. A whopping 19 percent remain undecided—a sign that Kiwis aren't particularly enthused by any of the options.
The poll surveyed 1,000 eligible voters online between March 12-20, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percent. Worth noting: half the respondents were surveyed before March 14, so these numbers don't fully capture the fallout from recent political controversies.
Mate, there's a whole continent and a thousand islands down here. And right now, voters are sending a clear message: one year in, this coalition government isn't cutting it. Whether they'll actually change their minds by election day is another question entirely.
