A political dispute over Kenya's fuel import routes has reignited questions about why East Africa still lacks domestic refining capacity, despite oil discoveries across the region and decades of discussion about energy independence.
The latest debate centers on claims about whether Kenyan fuel passes through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic chokepoint between Oman and Iran through which much of the world's petroleum flows. The geographical specifics matter less than the underlying reality: Kenya imports all its refined petroleum products, leaving prices vulnerable to global shocks, shipping routes, and exchange rates.
"We keep having these arguments about fuel costs while ignoring the fundamental issue," said James Mwangi, an energy analyst at Nairobi's Strathmore University. "We don't refine our own petroleum. That's why politicians can tell us different stories about why prices go up, and we can't verify any of it."
The proposed East African Crude Oil Pipeline and associated refinery infrastructure have been discussed since Uganda's oil discoveries in the Lake Albert basin more than 15 years ago. Kenya was to host refining capacity, positioning Mombasa as a regional energy hub. Progress has been glacial.
Multiple factors explain the delays: financing challenges for multi-billion dollar infrastructure, environmental concerns about pipeline routing, changing global energy markets, and political complications across the three-country partnership of Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania.
Meanwhile, East African consumers pay premium prices for imported refined products. Kenya's fuel costs reflect not just crude oil prices but also refining margins in and facilities, shipping costs, and multiple intermediary markups.
